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Trail Blazers at Mavericks

NBA · Sunday, Nov 16 · 6:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final POR 133 – DAL 138
← NBA / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
POR3724302715133
DAL2928283320138
Team box
POR·DAL
46-113
field goals
48-95
14-47
3-pointers
15-34
27-32
free throws
27-40
53
rebounds
47
26
assists
33
12
turnovers
15
56
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shaedon SharpePOR393646
Deni AvdijaPOR392967
Jerami GrantPOR392652
Cooper FlaggDAL372185
P.J. WashingtonDAL382172
Daniel GaffordDAL312062

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +12
POR +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: DAL 6 · POR 12lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 44%, DAL 56% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 1.9
Expected score
DAL 114.1 – 112.2 POR
Expected total
226.3
Trail BlazersThe matchupMavericks
+128Our fair odds−128
112.2Expected points114.1
−0.17Power rating−0.19
120.6Points / game109.2
120.8Allowed / game115.8
45.9FG%44.8
33.73P%30.2
42.9Rebounds / game45.1
6−6Season record3−10
5−5Last 102−8
Blake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Hansen Yang · Javonte Cooke
Matisse ThybulleOutDante Exum · Kyrie Irving
Ryan Nembhard

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · DAL chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+12844%————
DALDallas Mavericks−12856%————
SpreadDAL by 1.9
PORPortland Trail Blazers+1.9our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks−1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.3
Over226.3our total————
Under226.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 1.9 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%
← POR wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more46%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more31%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.3 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GShaedon Sharpestarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GBrandon Williamsstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·DAL
Nov 14, 2025 at HOU
last game
Nov 14, 2025 vs LAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 16, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORHansen Yang · g league - on assignmentOut
PORJavonte Cooke · g league - two-wayOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · left thumb; ligaments tearOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
PORJrue Holiday · right calf; sorenessQuestionable
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; injuryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALRyan Nembhard · left knee; sprainOut
DALAnthony Davis · left calf; strainDoubtful
DALP.J. Washington · left shoulder; strainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
POR·DAL
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
120.6
points / game
109.2
120.8
points allowed / game
115.8
6−6
season record
3−10
3−2
home record
2−7
3−4
away record
1−3
L1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
2−8
45.9
FG%
44.8
33.7
3P%
30.2
42.9
rebounds / game
45.1
25.4
assists / game
24.1
16.7
turnovers / game
17.1
53.5
points in paint / game
50.0

Rating Trend

POR · DAL · 20 days
Portland Trail BlazersDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 7−3
Jan 9, 2025at DALDAL 117 − 111
Dec 28, 2024at PORPOR 126 − 122
Dec 23, 2024at DALDAL 132 − 108
Dec 1, 2024at PORDAL 137 − 131
Jan 5, 2024at DALDAL 139 − 103
Jan 3, 2024at DALDAL 126 − 97
Dec 16, 2023at PORDAL 131 − 120
Dec 8, 2023at PORDAL 125 − 112
Jan 15, 2023at PORPOR 140 − 123
Jan 14, 2023at PORPOR 136 − 119

POR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 14, 2025at HOU116 − 140L
Nov 12, 2025at NO125 − 117W
Nov 10, 2025at ORL112 − 115L
Nov 8, 2025at MIA131 − 136L
Nov 5, 2025vs OKC121 − 119W
Nov 3, 2025vs LAL115 − 123L
Oct 31, 2025vs DEN109 − 107W
Oct 29, 2025at UTAH136 − 134W
Oct 27, 2025at LAL122 − 108W
Oct 26, 2025at LAC107 − 114L

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Nov 14, 2025vs LAC127 − 133L
Nov 12, 2025vs PHX114 − 123L
Nov 10, 2025vs MIL114 − 116L
Nov 8, 2025at WSH111 − 105W
Nov 7, 2025at MEM104 − 118L
Nov 5, 2025vs NO99 − 101L
Nov 3, 2025at HOU102 − 110L
Nov 1, 2025at DET110 − 122L
Oct 29, 2025vs IND107 − 105W
Oct 27, 2025vs OKC94 − 101L