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Suns at Mavericks

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 12 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final PHX 123 – DAL 114
← NBA / Nov 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX30333228123
DAL28252833114
Team box
PHX·DAL
44-95
field goals
43-86
14-35
3-pointers
17-47
21-26
free throws
11-17
46
rebounds
45
31
assists
32
12
turnovers
21
52
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Devin BookerPHX382639
Grayson AllenPHX332353
Klay ThompsonDAL311931
Dillon BrooksPHX311824
Brandon WilliamsDAL331759
Cooper FlaggDAL341666

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +18
PHX +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 10 · PHX 18lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 46%, DAL 54% · Updated Nov 12, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 0.9
Expected score
DAL 114.9 – 114.0 PHX
Expected total
228.9
SunsThe matchupMavericks
+118Our fair odds−118
114.0Expected points114.9
−0.09Power rating−0.19
116.8Points / game107.2
115.0Allowed / game113.5
46.6FG%44.5
38.83P%29.8
42.9Rebounds / game44.6
6−5Season record3−8
5−5Last 103−7
CJ Huntley · Jalen Green
Koby BreaOutDante Exum · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · DAL chance
Our model fair45.8%54.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+11846%————
DALDallas Mavericks−11854%————
SpreadDAL by 0.9
PHXPhoenix Suns+0.9our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.9
Over228.9our total————
Under228.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 0.9 expected
Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%
← PHX wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more43%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more29%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.9 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.570%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.531%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GGrayson Allenstarted
GDevin Bookerstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GBrandon Williamsstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·DAL
Nov 10, 2025 vs NO
last game
Nov 10, 2025 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 12, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXCJ Huntley · g league - two-wayOut
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXKoby Brea · g league - two-wayOut
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; injury managementOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALAnthony Davis · left calf; strainQuestionable
DALDereck Lively II · right knee; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
PHX·DAL
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
116.8
points / game
107.2
115.0
points allowed / game
113.5
6−5
season record
3−8
5−1
home record
2−5
1−4
away record
1−3
W3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
46.6
FG%
44.5
38.8
3P%
29.8
42.9
rebounds / game
44.6
27.9
assists / game
23.9
16.9
turnovers / game
16.0
41.1
points in paint / game
49.1

Rating Trend

PHX · DAL · 16 days
Phoenix SunsDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 5−5
Mar 9, 2025at DALPHX 125 − 116
Dec 27, 2024at PHXDAL 98 − 89
Nov 8, 2024at DALPHX 114 − 113
Oct 26, 2024at PHXPHX 114 − 102
Feb 22, 2024at DALDAL 123 − 113
Jan 24, 2024at DALPHX 132 − 109
Dec 25, 2023at PHXDAL 128 − 114
Mar 5, 2023at DALPHX 130 − 126
Jan 26, 2023at PHXDAL 99 − 95
Dec 5, 2022at DALDAL 130 − 111

PHX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Nov 10, 2025vs NO121 − 98W
Nov 8, 2025at LAC114 − 103W
Nov 6, 2025vs LAC115 − 102W
Nov 4, 2025at GS107 − 118L
Nov 2, 2025vs SA130 − 118W
Oct 31, 2025vs UTAH118 − 96W
Oct 29, 2025vs MEM113 − 114L
Oct 27, 2025at UTAH134 − 138L
Oct 25, 2025at DEN111 − 133L
Oct 24, 2025at LAC102 − 129L

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Nov 10, 2025vs MIL114 − 116L
Nov 8, 2025at WSH111 − 105W
Nov 7, 2025at MEM104 − 118L
Nov 5, 2025vs NO99 − 101L
Nov 3, 2025at HOU102 − 110L
Nov 1, 2025at DET110 − 122L
Oct 29, 2025vs IND107 − 105W
Oct 27, 2025vs OKC94 − 101L
Oct 26, 2025vs TOR139 − 129W
Oct 24, 2025vs WSH107 − 117L