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Pelicans at Warriors

NBA · Saturday, Nov 29 · 7:30 PM CT · Chase Center · Final NO 96 – GS 104
← NBA / Nov 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO1820342496
GS17253131104
Team box
NO·GS
32-86
field goals
38-93
7-30
3-pointers
12-47
25-34
free throws
16-20
50
rebounds
47
16
assists
28
13
turnovers
10
48
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Zion WilliamsonNO312574
Jimmy Butler IIIGS3724810
Saddiq BeyNO382173
Gary Payton IIGS2519113
Jeremiah FearsNO361662
Brandin PodziemskiGS331556

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +11
NO +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 11 · NO 10lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 20%, GS 80% · Updated Nov 29, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 11.6
Expected score
GS 119.0 – 107.5 NO
Expected total
226.5
PelicansThe matchupWarriors
+409Our fair odds−409
107.5Expected points119.0
−0.87Power rating+0.31
111.5Points / game115.0
122.5Allowed / game114.5
44.8FG%45.4
33.93P%36.5
42.4Rebounds / game42.9
3−16Season record10−10
1−9Last 105−5
Dejounte Murray · Herbert Jones
Jordan Hawkins · Jordan Poole
Karlo MatkovicOutAl Horford · De'Anthony Melton
Stephen Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · GS chance
Our model fair19.7%80.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+40920%————
GSGolden State Warriors−40980%————
SpreadGS by 11.6
NONew Orleans Pelicans+11.6our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−11.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.5
Over226.5our total————
Under226.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 11.6 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 53 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 52 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 51 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 50 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 50 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 51 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 52 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 53 points: <1%
← NO wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more70%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more56%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more40%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.5 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GBryce McGowensstarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
CDerik Queenstarted
Golden State Warriors
GMoses Moodystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·GS
Nov 26, 2025 vs MEM
last game
Nov 26, 2025 vs HOU
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 29, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHerbert Jones · right calf; strainOut
NOJordan Hawkins · n/a; illnessOut
NOJordan Poole · left quad; strainOut
NOKarlo Matkovic · right calf; strainOut
NOTrey Murphy III · right elbow; sorenessQuestionable
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
GSStephen Curry · left quadriceps; contusionOut
GSJonathan Kuminga · bilateral knee; patellar tendonitisQuestionable
GSGary Payton II · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
NO·GS
−0.87
rating (0 = average)
+0.31
111.5
points / game
115.0
122.5
points allowed / game
114.5
3−16
season record
10−10
2−9
home record
6−2
1−7
away record
4−8
L1
streak
L1
1−9
last 10
5−5
44.8
FG%
45.4
33.9
3P%
36.5
42.4
rebounds / game
42.9
23.7
assists / game
27.4
15.6
turnovers / game
16.6
52.9
points in paint / game
41.1

Rating Trend

NO · GS · 32 days
New Orleans PelicansGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 8−2
Nov 16, 2025at NOGS 124 − 106
Mar 28, 2025at NOGS 111 − 95
Nov 22, 2024at NOGS 112 − 108
Oct 30, 2024at GSGS 104 − 89
Oct 29, 2024at GSGS 124 − 106
Apr 12, 2024at GSNO 114 − 109
Jan 10, 2024at GSNO 141 − 105
Oct 30, 2023at NOGS 130 − 102
Mar 28, 2023at GSGS 120 − 109
Mar 3, 2023at GSGS 108 − 99

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Nov 26, 2025vs MEM128 − 133L
Nov 24, 2025vs CHI143 − 130W
Nov 22, 2025vs ATL98 − 115L
Nov 21, 2025at DAL115 − 118L
Nov 19, 2025vs DEN118 − 125L
Nov 17, 2025vs OKC109 − 126L
Nov 16, 2025vs GS106 − 124L
Nov 14, 2025vs LAL104 − 118L
Nov 12, 2025vs POR117 − 125L
Nov 10, 2025at PHX98 − 121L

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 26, 2025vs HOU100 − 104L
Nov 24, 2025vs UTAH134 − 117W
Nov 21, 2025vs POR123 − 127L
Nov 19, 2025at MIA96 − 110L
Nov 18, 2025at ORL113 − 121L
Nov 16, 2025at NO124 − 106W
Nov 14, 2025at SA109 − 108W
Nov 12, 2025at SA125 − 120W
Nov 11, 2025at OKC102 − 126L
Nov 9, 2025vs IND114 − 83W