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Hawks at Pelicans

NBA · Saturday, Nov 22 · 6:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final ATL 115 – NO 98
← NBA / Nov 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL21353227115
NO2521242898
Team box
ATL·NO
42-90
field goals
35-84
17-46
3-pointers
8-27
14-19
free throws
20-24
42
rebounds
48
28
assists
21
7
turnovers
18
42
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kristaps PorzingisATL333074
Vit KrejciATL272110
Derik QueenNO322093
Trey Murphy IIINO311994
Jalen JohnsonATL3418119
Saddiq BeyNO2818115

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +24
ATL +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 7 · ATL 24lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 66%, NO 34% · Updated Nov 22, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 7.4
Expected score
ATL 121.4 – 114.0 NO
Expected total
235.3
HawksThe matchupPelicans
−198Our fair odds+198
121.4Expected points114.0
+0.08Power rating−0.88
117.8Points / game109.3
115.7Allowed / game121.8
49.1FG%44.3
36.93P%33.5
41.4Rebounds / game41.4
9−7Season record2−14
6−4Last 102−8
Eli John Ndiaye · Keaton Wallace
N'Faly Dante · Nikola Djurisic
Onyeka OkongwuOut (5 each)Dejounte Murray · Jordan Poole
Karlo Matkovic · Trey Alexander
Zion Williamson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NO chance
Our model fair66.4%33.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks−19866%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+19834%————
SpreadATL by 7.4
ATLAtlanta Hawks−7.4our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+7.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.3
Over235.3our total————
Under235.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 7.4 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%
← ATL wins byNO wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more61%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more45%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.3 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.548%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GMicah Peavystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NO
Nov 20, 2025 at SA
last game
Nov 21, 2025 at DAL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 22, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLKeaton Wallace · personal reasonsOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLOnyeka Okongwu · left ankle; inflammationOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprainOut
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOJordan Poole · left quad; strainOut
NOKarlo Matkovic · right calf; strainOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOZion Williamson · left hamstring; injury managementOut
NOHerbert Jones · low back; spasmsQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
ATL·NO
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.88
117.8
points / game
109.3
115.7
points allowed / game
121.8
9−7
season record
2−14
2−4
home record
1−7
7−3
away record
1−7
L2
streak
L8
6−4
last 10
2−8
49.1
FG%
44.3
36.9
3P%
33.5
41.4
rebounds / game
41.4
30.4
assists / game
22.9
15.6
turnovers / game
15.6
52.6
points in paint / game
51.6

Rating Trend

ATL · NO · 26 days
Atlanta HawksNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NO 3−5
Dec 2, 2024at ATLATL 124 − 112
Nov 3, 2024at NOATL 126 − 111
Mar 10, 2024at ATLNO 116 − 103
Nov 4, 2023at NOATL 123 − 105
Feb 7, 2023at NONO 116 − 107
Nov 5, 2022at ATLATL 124 − 121
Mar 20, 2022at ATLNO 117 − 112
Oct 27, 2021at NOATL 102 − 99

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Nov 20, 2025at SA126 − 135L
Nov 18, 2025vs DET112 − 120L
Nov 16, 2025at PHX124 − 122W
Nov 13, 2025at UTAH132 − 122W
Nov 12, 2025at SAC133 − 100W
Nov 10, 2025at LAC105 − 102W
Nov 8, 2025vs LAL122 − 102W
Nov 7, 2025vs TOR97 − 109L
Nov 4, 2025vs ORL127 − 112W
Nov 2, 2025at CLE109 − 117L

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak L8
Nov 21, 2025at DAL115 − 118L
Nov 19, 2025vs DEN118 − 125L
Nov 17, 2025vs OKC109 − 126L
Nov 16, 2025vs GS106 − 124L
Nov 14, 2025vs LAL104 − 118L
Nov 12, 2025vs POR117 − 125L
Nov 10, 2025at PHX98 − 121L
Nov 8, 2025at SA119 − 126L
Nov 5, 2025at DAL101 − 99W
Nov 4, 2025vs CHA116 − 112W