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Hawks at Suns

NBA · Sunday, Nov 16 · 7:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final ATL 124 – PHX 122
← NBA / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL25322047124
PHX21373727122
Team box
ATL·PHX
45-85
field goals
47-97
14-43
3-pointers
10-30
20-24
free throws
18-19
34
rebounds
47
35
assists
23
17
turnovers
17
58
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Dillon BrooksPHX363461
Onyeka OkongwuATL372745
Devin BookerPHX382727
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL352634
Jalen JohnsonATL3925107
Collin GillespiePHX321587

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +22
ATL +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 22 · ATL 13lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 45%, PHX 55% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
PHX by 0.7
Expected score
PHX 119.1 – 118.5 ATL
Expected total
237.6
HawksThe matchupSuns
+121Our fair odds−121
118.5Expected points119.1
−0.03Power rating−0.09
117.1Points / game118.5
113.4Allowed / game113.6
48.4FG%47.5
36.23P%38.8
42.7Rebounds / game43.2
8−5Season record8−5
7−3Last 107−3
Eli John Ndiaye · Jacob Toppin
N'Faly Dante · Nikola Djurisic
Trae YoungOutGrayson Allen · Jalen Green

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · PHX chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+12145%————
PHXPhoenix Suns−12155%————
SpreadPHX by 0.7
ATLAtlanta Hawks+0.7our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.6
Over237.6our total————
Under237.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 0.7 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%
← ATL wins byPHX wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more42%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more29%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.6 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.568%
Total over 237.549%
Total over 247.531%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
FRyan Dunnstarted
CMark Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·PHX
Nov 13, 2025 at UTAH
last game
Nov 13, 2025 vs IND
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 16, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJacob Toppin · g league - two-wayOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee mcl; sprainOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · right knee; sorenessQuestionable
Phoenix Suns
PHXGrayson Allen · right quadriceps; contusionOut
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
ATL·PHX
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
117.1
points / game
118.5
113.4
points allowed / game
113.6
8−5
season record
8−5
2−3
home record
6−1
6−2
away record
2−4
W4
streak
W5
7−3
last 10
7−3
48.4
FG%
47.5
36.2
3P%
38.8
42.7
rebounds / game
43.2
30.1
assists / game
27.5
15.2
turnovers / game
16.1
52.9
points in paint / game
42.9

Rating Trend

ATL · PHX · 20 days
Atlanta HawksPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · PHX 3−5
Jan 14, 2025at ATLATL 122 − 117
Jan 9, 2025at PHXPHX 123 − 115
Mar 21, 2024at PHXPHX 128 − 115
Feb 2, 2024at ATLATL 129 − 120
Feb 9, 2023at ATLATL 116 − 107
Feb 1, 2023at PHXATL 132 − 100
Feb 3, 2022at ATLATL 124 − 115
Nov 6, 2021at PHXPHX 121 − 117

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Nov 13, 2025at UTAH132 − 122W
Nov 12, 2025at SAC133 − 100W
Nov 10, 2025at LAC105 − 102W
Nov 8, 2025vs LAL122 − 102W
Nov 7, 2025vs TOR97 − 109L
Nov 4, 2025vs ORL127 − 112W
Nov 2, 2025at CLE109 − 117L
Oct 31, 2025at IND128 − 108W
Oct 29, 2025at BKN117 − 112W
Oct 27, 2025at CHI123 − 128L

PHX · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Nov 13, 2025vs IND133 − 98W
Nov 12, 2025at DAL123 − 114W
Nov 10, 2025vs NO121 − 98W
Nov 8, 2025at LAC114 − 103W
Nov 6, 2025vs LAC115 − 102W
Nov 4, 2025at GS107 − 118L
Nov 2, 2025vs SA130 − 118W
Oct 31, 2025vs UTAH118 − 96W
Oct 29, 2025vs MEM113 − 114L
Oct 27, 2025at UTAH134 − 138L