bayesRatings

Pacers at Suns

NBA · Thursday, Nov 13 · 8:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final IND 98 – PHX 133
← NBA / Nov 13, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND2329321498
PHX31393627133
Team box
IND·PHX
32-88
field goals
49-85
7-25
3-pointers
13-35
27-29
free throws
22-27
41
rebounds
43
20
assists
19
12
turnovers
11
42
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Devin BookerPHX293357
Dillon BrooksPHX283210
Andrew NembhardIND272128
Pascal SiakamIND311952
Oso IghodaroPHX261770
Grayson AllenPHX121212

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +46
IND +46
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 46 · IND 5lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 52%, PHX 48% · Updated Nov 13, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 0.8
Expected score
IND 117.2 – 116.4 PHX
Expected total
233.7
PacersThe matchupSuns
−107Our fair odds+107
117.2Expected points116.4
+0.24Power rating−0.09
109.5Points / game117.3
121.7Allowed / game114.9
40.1FG%46.6
29.53P%38.9
48.0Rebounds / game43.2
1−10Season record7−5
1−9Last 106−4
Bennedict Mathurin · Cody Martin
Johnny Furphy · Kam Jones
Obi ToppinOutJalen Green · Mark Williams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · PHX chance
Our model fair51.8%48.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers−10752%————
PHXPhoenix Suns+10748%————
SpreadIND by 0.8
INDIndiana Pacers−0.8our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.7
Over233.7our total————
Under233.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 0.8 expected
Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%
← IND wins byPHX wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more42%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more28%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.7 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.569%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FJeremiah Robinson-Earlstarted
CTony Bradleystarted
Phoenix Suns
GGrayson Allenstarted
GDevin Bookerstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CNick Richardsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·PHX
Nov 11, 2025 at UTAH
last game
Nov 12, 2025 at DAL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 13, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDBennedict Mathurin · right great toe; sprainOut
INDCody Martin · n/a; illnessOut
INDJohnny Furphy · left ankle; sprainOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stressOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
Phoenix Suns
PHXJalen Green · fracture right hamstring; strainOut
PHXMark Williams · right knee; injury managementOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
IND·PHX
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
109.5
points / game
117.3
121.7
points allowed / game
114.9
1−10
season record
7−5
1−4
home record
5−1
0−6
away record
2−4
L5
streak
W4
1−9
last 10
6−4
40.1
FG%
46.6
29.5
3P%
38.9
48.0
rebounds / game
43.2
23.6
assists / game
28.2
13.9
turnovers / game
16.5
47.5
points in paint / game
42.0

Rating Trend

IND · PHX · 17 days
Indiana PacersPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · PHX 5−3
Jan 4, 2025at INDIND 126 − 108
Dec 19, 2024at PHXIND 120 − 111
Jan 26, 2024at INDIND 133 − 131
Jan 21, 2024at PHXPHX 117 − 110
Feb 10, 2023at INDPHX 117 − 104
Jan 21, 2023at PHXPHX 112 − 107
Jan 22, 2022at PHXPHX 113 − 103
Jan 14, 2022at INDPHX 112 − 94

IND · Last 10

1−9 · streak L5
Nov 11, 2025at UTAH128 − 152L
Nov 9, 2025at GS83 − 114L
Nov 8, 2025at DEN100 − 117L
Nov 5, 2025vs BKN103 − 112L
Nov 3, 2025vs MIL115 − 117L
Nov 1, 2025vs GS114 − 109W
Oct 31, 2025vs ATL108 − 128L
Oct 29, 2025at DAL105 − 107L
Oct 26, 2025at MIN110 − 114L
Oct 25, 2025at MEM103 − 128L

PHX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Nov 12, 2025at DAL123 − 114W
Nov 10, 2025vs NO121 − 98W
Nov 8, 2025at LAC114 − 103W
Nov 6, 2025vs LAC115 − 102W
Nov 4, 2025at GS107 − 118L
Nov 2, 2025vs SA130 − 118W
Oct 31, 2025vs UTAH118 − 96W
Oct 29, 2025vs MEM113 − 114L
Oct 27, 2025at UTAH134 − 138L
Oct 25, 2025at DEN111 − 133L