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Pacers at Jazz

NBA · Tuesday, Nov 11 · 8:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final IND 128 – UTAH 152
← NBA / Nov 11, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND34233437128
UTAH38324438152
Team box
IND·UTAH
46-99
field goals
51-92
10-37
3-pointers
19-42
26-29
free throws
31-35
35
rebounds
45
29
assists
38
8
turnovers
15
58
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH353532
Pascal SiakamIND352754
Andrew NembhardIND302527
Svi MykhailiukUTAH272044
Ace BaileyUTAH262041
Aaron NesmithIND321747

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +26
IND +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: UTAH 26 · IND 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 71%, UTAH 29% · Updated Nov 11, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 9.2
Expected score
IND 123.2 – 114.1 UTAH
Expected total
237.3
PacersThe matchupJazz
−245Our fair odds+245
123.2Expected points114.1
+0.24Power rating−0.94
107.6Points / game112.2
118.7Allowed / game120.1
39.5FG%42.8
29.73P%30.5
49.3Rebounds / game48.1
1−9Season record3−7
1−9Last 103−7
Bennedict Mathurin · Johnny Furphy
Kam Jones · Obi Toppin
Quenton JacksonOut (5 each)Georges Niang · John Tonje
Kevin Love · Kyle Anderson
Oscar Tshiebwe

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair71.0%29.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers−24571%————
UTAHUtah Jazz+24529%————
SpreadIND by 9.2
INDIndiana Pacers−9.2our margin————
UTAHUtah Jazz+9.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.3
Over237.3our total————
Under237.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 9.2 expected
Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 49 points: <1%
← IND wins byUTAH wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more66%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more50%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.3 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.568%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FJeremiah Robinson-Earlstarted
CTony Bradleystarted
Utah Jazz
GSvi Mykhailiukstarted
GKeyonte Georgestarted
GAce Baileystarted
FLauri Markkanenstarted
CJusuf Nurkicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·UTAH
Nov 9, 2025 at GS
last game
Nov 10, 2025 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 11, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDBennedict Mathurin · right great toe; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · left ankle; sprainOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDT.J. McConnell · left hamstring; strainQuestionable
INDTaelon Peter · right groin; sorenessQuestionable
Utah Jazz
UTAHGeorges Niang · left foot; fourth metatarsal stress reactionOut
UTAHJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHKevin Love · recovery restOut
UTAHKyle Anderson · right lower back; sorenessOut
UTAHOscar Tshiebwe · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHTaylor Hendricks · right hamstring; sorenessOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injuryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
IND·UTAH
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
−0.94
107.6
points / game
112.2
118.7
points allowed / game
120.1
1−9
season record
3−7
1−4
home record
2−2
0−5
away record
1−5
L4
streak
L3
1−9
last 10
3−7
39.5
FG%
42.8
29.7
3P%
30.5
49.3
rebounds / game
48.1
23.1
assists / game
27.5
14.5
turnovers / game
17.3
46.4
points in paint / game
46.4

Rating Trend

IND · UTAH · 15 days
Indiana PacersUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · UTAH 3−5
Apr 4, 2025at INDIND 140 − 112
Feb 3, 2025at UTAHIND 112 − 111
Jan 15, 2024at UTAHUTAH 132 − 105
Nov 8, 2023at INDIND 134 − 118
Feb 13, 2023at INDUTAH 123 − 117
Dec 2, 2022at UTAHUTAH 139 − 119
Jan 8, 2022at INDIND 125 − 113
Nov 11, 2021at UTAHIND 111 − 100

IND · Last 10

1−9 · streak L4
Nov 9, 2025at GS83 − 114L
Nov 8, 2025at DEN100 − 117L
Nov 5, 2025vs BKN103 − 112L
Nov 3, 2025vs MIL115 − 117L
Nov 1, 2025vs GS114 − 109W
Oct 31, 2025vs ATL108 − 128L
Oct 29, 2025at DAL105 − 107L
Oct 26, 2025at MIN110 − 114L
Oct 25, 2025at MEM103 − 128L
Oct 23, 2025vs OKC135 − 141L

UTAH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Nov 10, 2025vs MIN113 − 120L
Nov 7, 2025at MIN97 − 137L
Nov 5, 2025at DET103 − 114L
Nov 3, 2025at BOS105 − 103W
Nov 2, 2025at CHA103 − 126L
Oct 31, 2025at PHX96 − 118L
Oct 29, 2025vs POR134 − 136L
Oct 27, 2025vs PHX138 − 134W
Oct 24, 2025at SAC104 − 105L
Oct 22, 2025vs LAC129 − 108W