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Hawks at Kings

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 12 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final ATL 133 – SAC 100
← NBA / Nov 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL37293928133
SAC34122232100
Team box
ATL·SAC
49-85
field goals
36-92
17-40
3-pointers
14-39
18-22
free throws
14-18
45
rebounds
35
42
assists
22
21
turnovers
20
56
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL2424108
Onyeka OkongwuATL212132
Keon EllisSAC312001
Zaccharie RisacherATL221531
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL221465
Kristaps PorzingisATL231346

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +44
ATL +44
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 0 · ATL 44lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 44%, SAC 56% · Updated Nov 12, 2025

Expected margin
SAC by 0.6
Expected score
SAC 120.2 – 119.6 ATL
Expected total
239.8
HawksThe matchupKings
+125Our fair odds−125
119.6Expected points120.2
−0.03Power rating−0.06
114.3Points / game114.6
113.8Allowed / game123.7
47.3FG%47.5
34.23P%37.5
42.5Rebounds / game39.5
6−5Season record3−8
6−4Last 103−7
Eli John Ndiaye · Jacob Toppin
N'Faly Dante · Nikola Djurisic
Trae YoungOutDylan Cardwell · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan Murray · Zach LaVine

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · SAC chance
Our model fair44.4%55.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+12544%————
SACSacramento Kings−12556%————
SpreadSAC by 0.6
ATLAtlanta Hawks+0.6our margin————
SACSacramento Kings−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 239.8
Over239.8our total————
Under239.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Sacramento Kings by 0.6 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%
← ATL wins bySAC wins by →
Sacramento Kings wins by 5 or more42%
Sacramento Kings wins by 10 or more28%
Sacramento Kings wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

239.8 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 229.568%
Total over 239.549%
Total over 249.531%
Total from 230 to 24937%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GDennis Schroderstarted
FDomantas Sabonisstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·SAC
Nov 10, 2025 at LAC
last game
Nov 11, 2025 vs DEN
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 12, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJacob Toppin · g league - two-wayOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · right elbow; sprainOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprainOut
ATLNickeil Alexander-Walker · low back; spasmQuestionable
Sacramento Kings
SACDylan Cardwell · g league - two-wayOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left thumb; ucl injury recoveryOut
SACZach LaVine · right thigh; contusionOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left ribcage; contusionQuestionable
SACMalik Monk · left ankle; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
ATL·SAC
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
114.3
points / game
114.6
113.8
points allowed / game
123.7
6−5
season record
3−8
2−3
home record
2−4
4−2
away record
1−4
W2
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
3−7
47.3
FG%
47.5
34.2
3P%
37.5
42.5
rebounds / game
39.5
28.5
assists / game
26.4
14.4
turnovers / game
14.1
53.8
points in paint / game
48.2

Rating Trend

ATL · SAC · 16 days
Atlanta HawksSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · SAC 3−5
Nov 18, 2024at SACATL 109 − 108
Nov 1, 2024at ATLSAC 123 − 115
Jan 22, 2024at SACSAC 122 − 107
Dec 29, 2023at ATLSAC 117 − 110
Jan 4, 2023at SACATL 120 − 117
Nov 23, 2022at ATLATL 115 − 106
Jan 26, 2022at ATLATL 121 − 104
Jan 5, 2022at SACATL 108 − 102

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 10, 2025at LAC105 − 102W
Nov 8, 2025vs LAL122 − 102W
Nov 7, 2025vs TOR97 − 109L
Nov 4, 2025vs ORL127 − 112W
Nov 2, 2025at CLE109 − 117L
Oct 31, 2025at IND128 − 108W
Oct 29, 2025at BKN117 − 112W
Oct 27, 2025at CHI123 − 128L
Oct 25, 2025vs OKC100 − 117L
Oct 24, 2025at ORL111 − 107W

SAC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Nov 11, 2025vs DEN108 − 122L
Nov 9, 2025vs MIN117 − 144L
Nov 7, 2025vs OKC101 − 132L
Nov 5, 2025vs GS121 − 116W
Nov 3, 2025at DEN124 − 130L
Nov 1, 2025at MIL135 − 133W
Oct 29, 2025at CHI113 − 126L
Oct 28, 2025at OKC101 − 107L
Oct 26, 2025vs LAL120 − 127L
Oct 24, 2025vs UTAH105 − 104W