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Hawks at Spurs

NBA · Thursday, Nov 20 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final ATL 126 – SA 135
← NBA / Nov 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL34263234126
SA28462140135
Team box
ATL·SA
49-87
field goals
48-91
20-37
3-pointers
17-40
8-13
free throws
22-30
39
rebounds
43
30
assists
34
16
turnovers
11
46
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL343845
Jalen JohnsonATL3826127
De'Aaron FoxSA312659
Keldon JohnsonSA322572
Julian ChampagnieSA312045
Harrison BarnesSA341652

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +19
ATL +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 19 · ATL 8lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 48%, SA 52% · Updated Nov 20, 2025

Expected margin
SA by 0.2
Expected score
SA 119.2 – 119.1 ATL
Expected total
238.3
HawksThe matchupSpurs
+106Our fair odds−106
119.1Expected points119.2
+0.08Power rating−0.12
117.2Points / game118.2
114.4Allowed / game111.3
48.7FG%49.8
35.83P%36.6
41.6Rebounds / game45.3
9−6Season record10−4
7−3Last 106−4
Eli John Ndiaye · N'Faly Dante
Nikola Djurisic · Trae YoungOut (4 each)Dylan Harper · Jordan McLaughlin
Stephon Castle · Victor Wembanyama

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · SA chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+10648%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−10652%————
SpreadSA by 0.2
ATLAtlanta Hawks+0.2our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.3
Over238.3our total————
Under238.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 0.2 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%
← ATL wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more41%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more27%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more16%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.3 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.567%
Total over 238.548%
Total over 248.530%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted
CKristaps Porzingisstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
CLuke Kornetstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·SA
Nov 18, 2025 vs DET
last game
Nov 18, 2025 vs MEM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 20, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprainOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · right knee; sorenessQuestionable
ATLZaccharie Risacher · left hip; contusionQuestionable
San Antonio Spurs
SADylan Harper · left calf; strainOut
SAJordan McLaughlin · left hamstring; strainOut
SAStephon Castle · left hip flexor; strainOut
SAVictor Wembanyama · left calf; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
ATL·SA
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
117.2
points / game
118.2
114.4
points allowed / game
111.3
9−6
season record
10−4
2−4
home record
7−2
7−2
away record
3−2
L1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
6−4
48.7
FG%
49.8
35.8
3P%
36.6
41.6
rebounds / game
45.3
30.5
assists / game
26.9
15.5
turnovers / game
16.2
53.1
points in paint / game
51.3

Rating Trend

ATL · SA · 24 days
Atlanta HawksSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · SA 4−4
Feb 5, 2025at ATLSA 126 − 125
Dec 19, 2024at SASA 133 − 126
Jan 15, 2024at ATLATL 109 − 99
Nov 30, 2023at SAATL 137 − 135
Mar 19, 2023at SASA 126 − 118
Feb 11, 2023at ATLATL 125 − 106
Feb 11, 2022at ATLSA 136 − 121
Nov 24, 2021at SAATL 124 − 106

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Nov 18, 2025vs DET112 − 120L
Nov 16, 2025at PHX124 − 122W
Nov 13, 2025at UTAH132 − 122W
Nov 12, 2025at SAC133 − 100W
Nov 10, 2025at LAC105 − 102W
Nov 8, 2025vs LAL122 − 102W
Nov 7, 2025vs TOR97 − 109L
Nov 4, 2025vs ORL127 − 112W
Nov 2, 2025at CLE109 − 117L
Oct 31, 2025at IND128 − 108W

SA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 18, 2025vs MEM111 − 101W
Nov 16, 2025vs SAC123 − 110W
Nov 14, 2025vs GS108 − 109L
Nov 12, 2025vs GS120 − 125L
Nov 10, 2025at CHI121 − 117W
Nov 8, 2025vs NO126 − 119W
Nov 7, 2025vs HOU121 − 110W
Nov 5, 2025at LAL116 − 118L
Nov 2, 2025at PHX118 − 130L
Oct 30, 2025vs MIA107 − 101W