bayesRatings

Pistons at Hawks

NBA · Tuesday, Nov 18 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final DET 120 – ATL 112
← NBA / Nov 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET35322726120
ATL30242830112
Team box
DET·ATL
45-83
field goals
42-87
10-31
3-pointers
15-44
20-24
free throws
13-15
39
rebounds
35
28
assists
31
15
turnovers
19
66
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL392589
Cade CunninghamDET3425610
Jalen DurenDET292483
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL372433
Onyeka OkongwuATL342113
Daniss JenkinsDET301437

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +19
DET +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 0 · DET 19lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 46%, ATL 54% · Updated Nov 18, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 0.9
Expected score
ATL 118.8 – 117.9 DET
Expected total
236.7
PistonsThe matchupHawks
+116Our fair odds−116
117.9Expected points118.8
+0.19Power rating+0.08
118.8Points / game117.6
112.1Allowed / game114.0
48.0FG%48.7
34.63P%35.9
47.4Rebounds / game42.1
12−2Season record9−5
10−0Last 108−2
Bobi Klintman · Caris LeVert
Jaden Ivey · Marcus SasserOut (4 each)Eli John Ndiaye · N'Faly Dante
Nikola Djurisic · Trae Young

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · ATL chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons+11646%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−11654%————
SpreadATL by 0.9
DETDetroit Pistons+0.9our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.7
Over236.7our total————
Under236.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 0.9 expected
Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%
← DET wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more43%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more29%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.7 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.531%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GDaniss Jenkinsstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CIsaiah Stewartstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GVit Krejcistarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·ATL
Nov 17, 2025 vs IND
last game
Nov 16, 2025 at PHX
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 18, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · left ankle; sprainOut
DETCaris LeVert · left ankle; sprainOut
DETJaden Ivey · g league - on assignmentOut
DETMarcus Sasser · right hip; impingementOut
DETAusar Thompson · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
DETCade Cunningham · left hip; contusionQuestionable
DETTobias Harris · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
Atlanta Hawks
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · coach's decisionOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · coach's decisionOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprainOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · right knee; sorenessQuestionable
ATLOnyeka Okongwu · right knee; contusionQuestionable
ATLZaccharie Risacher · left hip; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
DET·ATL
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
118.8
points / game
117.6
112.1
points allowed / game
114.0
12−2
season record
9−5
8−1
home record
2−3
4−1
away record
7−2
W10
streak
W5
10−0
last 10
8−2
48.0
FG%
48.7
34.6
3P%
35.9
47.4
rebounds / game
42.1
26.8
assists / game
30.4
15.3
turnovers / game
15.3
58.9
points in paint / game
53.3

Rating Trend

DET · ATL · 22 days
Detroit PistonsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 7−3
Feb 23, 2025at ATLDET 148 − 143
Feb 3, 2025at DETATL 132 − 130
Jan 22, 2025at ATLDET 114 − 104
Nov 8, 2024at DETDET 122 − 121
Apr 3, 2024at ATLATL 121 − 113
Dec 18, 2023at ATLATL 130 − 124
Nov 14, 2023at DETATL 126 − 120
Mar 21, 2023at ATLATL 129 − 107
Dec 23, 2022at ATLATL 130 − 105
Oct 28, 2022at DETATL 136 − 112

DET · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Nov 17, 2025vs IND127 − 112W
Nov 14, 2025vs PHI114 − 105W
Nov 12, 2025vs CHI124 − 113W
Nov 10, 2025vs WSH137 − 135W
Nov 9, 2025at PHI111 − 108W
Nov 7, 2025at BKN125 − 107W
Nov 5, 2025vs UTAH114 − 103W
Nov 3, 2025at MEM114 − 106W
Nov 1, 2025vs DAL122 − 110W
Oct 29, 2025vs ORL135 − 116W

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Nov 16, 2025at PHX124 − 122W
Nov 13, 2025at UTAH132 − 122W
Nov 12, 2025at SAC133 − 100W
Nov 10, 2025at LAC105 − 102W
Nov 8, 2025vs LAL122 − 102W
Nov 7, 2025vs TOR97 − 109L
Nov 4, 2025vs ORL127 − 112W
Nov 2, 2025at CLE109 − 117L
Oct 31, 2025at IND128 − 108W
Oct 29, 2025at BKN117 − 112W