bayesRatings

Pistons at 76ers

NBA · Sunday, Nov 9 · 6:30 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final DET 111 – PHI 108
← NBA / Nov 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET37173423111
PHI32322123108
Team box
DET·PHI
39-82
field goals
36-84
13-30
3-pointers
12-33
20-28
free throws
24-28
37
rebounds
44
23
assists
22
16
turnovers
20
46
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyrese MaxeyPHI383347
Cade CunninghamDET4126411
Jalen DurenDET3721161
Andre DrummondPHI3517122
Duncan RobinsonDET301711
Ausar ThompsonDET341454

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +13
DET +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 13 · DET 8lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 56%, PHI 44% · Updated Nov 9, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 2.3
Expected score
DET 115.8 – 113.4 PHI
Expected total
229.2
PistonsThe matchup76ers
−126Our fair odds+126
115.8Expected points113.4
+0.09Power rating−0.38
116.7Points / game124.0
110.8Allowed / game119.3
47.4FG%47.7
33.23P%38.7
47.9Rebounds / game43.9
7−2Season record6−3
7−3Last 106−4
Colby Jones · Isaiah Stewart
Jaden Ivey · Marcus Sasser
Tobias HarrisOutDominick Barlow · Joel Embiid
Johni Broome · Paul George

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · PHI chance
Our model fair55.8%44.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons−12656%————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+12644%————
SpreadDET by 2.3
DETDetroit Pistons−2.3our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.2
Over229.2our total————
Under229.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 2.3 expected
Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%
← DET wins byPHI wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more46%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more32%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.2 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.568%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
FRonald Holland IIstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FTrendon Watfordstarted
CAndre Drummondstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·PHI
Nov 7, 2025 at BKN
last game
Nov 8, 2025 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 9, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETColby Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DETIsaiah Stewart · left ankle; sprainOut
DETJaden Ivey · right knee; arthroscopyOut
DETMarcus Sasser · right hip; impingementOut
DETTobias Harris · right ankle; sprainOut
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIDominick Barlow · right elbow; lacerationOut
PHIJoel Embiid · left knee; injury managementOut
PHIJohni Broome · right ankle; sprainOut
PHIPaul George · left knee; surgery recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 9+ games
DET·PHI
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.38
116.7
points / game
124.0
110.8
points allowed / game
119.3
7−2
season record
6−3
4−1
home record
3−1
3−1
away record
3−2
W5
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
6−4
47.4
FG%
47.7
33.2
3P%
38.7
47.9
rebounds / game
43.9
26.0
assists / game
27.0
14.7
turnovers / game
14.7
60.7
points in paint / game
50.9

Rating Trend

DET · PHI · 13 days
Detroit PistonsPhiladelphia 76ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 8−2
Feb 7, 2025at DETDET 125 − 112
Nov 30, 2024at DETPHI 111 − 96
Oct 30, 2024at PHIDET 105 − 95
Apr 9, 2024at PHIPHI 120 − 102
Dec 15, 2023at PHIPHI 124 − 92
Dec 13, 2023at DETPHI 129 − 111
Nov 10, 2023at DETPHI 114 − 106
Jan 10, 2023at PHIPHI 147 − 116
Jan 8, 2023at DETPHI 123 − 111
Dec 21, 2022at PHIPHI 113 − 93

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Nov 7, 2025at BKN125 − 107W
Nov 5, 2025vs UTAH114 − 103W
Nov 3, 2025at MEM114 − 106W
Nov 1, 2025vs DAL122 − 110W
Oct 29, 2025vs ORL135 − 116W
Oct 27, 2025vs CLE95 − 116L
Oct 26, 2025vs BOS119 − 113W
Oct 24, 2025at HOU115 − 111W
Oct 22, 2025at CHI111 − 115L
May 1, 2025vs NY113 − 116L

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 8, 2025vs TOR130 − 120W
Nov 5, 2025at CLE121 − 132L
Nov 4, 2025at CHI111 − 113L
Nov 2, 2025at BKN129 − 105W
Oct 31, 2025vs BOS108 − 109L
Oct 28, 2025at WSH139 − 134W
Oct 27, 2025vs ORL136 − 124W
Oct 25, 2025vs CHA125 − 121W
Oct 22, 2025at BOS117 − 116W
Apr 13, 2025vs CHI102 − 122L