bayesRatings

Pacers at Pistons

NBA · Monday, Nov 17 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final IND 112 – DET 127
← NBA / Nov 17, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND21252937112
DET26363134127
Team box
IND·DET
35-84
field goals
48-88
9-31
3-pointers
9-35
33-45
free throws
22-30
43
rebounds
43
19
assists
29
21
turnovers
17
48
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen DurenDET2931153
Pascal SiakamIND342971
Daniss JenkinsDET332628
Bennedict MathurinIND252532
Javonte GreenDET272040
Isaiah JacksonIND2716103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +24
IND +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 24 · IND 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 46%, DET 54% · Updated Nov 17, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 1.8
Expected score
DET 116.9 – 115.1 IND
Expected total
232.0
PacersThe matchupPistons
+117Our fair odds−117
115.1Expected points116.9
+0.24Power rating+0.14
108.7Points / game118.2
123.2Allowed / game112.2
40.0FG%47.5
29.83P%35.2
46.8Rebounds / game47.8
1−12Season record11−2
1−9Last 109−1
Aaron Nesmith · Johnny Furphy
Kam Jones · Obi Toppin
Quenton JacksonOutBobi Klintman · Jaden Ivey
Marcus Sasser · Tobias Harris

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · DET chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+11746%————
DETDetroit Pistons−11754%————
SpreadDET by 1.8
INDIndiana Pacers+1.8our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.0
Over232.0our total————
Under232.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 1.8 expected
Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%
← IND wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more45%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more31%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.0 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.548%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FIsaiah Jacksonstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
Detroit Pistons
GDaniss Jenkinsstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
FRonald Holland IIstarted
CIsaiah Stewartstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·DET
Nov 15, 2025 vs TOR
last game
Nov 14, 2025 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 16, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · left mcl; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · left ankle; sprainOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tornOut
INDBennedict Mathurin · right great toe; sprainQuestionable
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · left ankle; sprainOut
DETJaden Ivey · right knee; arthroscopyOut
DETMarcus Sasser · right hip; impingementOut
DETTobias Harris · right ankle; sprainOut
DETAusar Thompson · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
DETCade Cunningham · left hip; contusionQuestionable
DETJalen Duren · right ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
IND·DET
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
108.7
points / game
118.2
123.2
points allowed / game
112.2
1−12
season record
11−2
1−5
home record
7−1
0−7
away record
4−1
L7
streak
W9
1−9
last 10
9−1
40.0
FG%
47.5
29.8
3P%
35.2
46.8
rebounds / game
47.8
23.2
assists / game
26.6
13.9
turnovers / game
15.2
46.3
points in paint / game
58.3

Rating Trend

IND · DET · 21 days
Indiana PacersDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 3−7
Jan 29, 2025at INDIND 133 − 119
Jan 16, 2025at DETIND 111 − 100
Nov 29, 2024at INDDET 130 − 106
Oct 23, 2024at DETIND 115 − 109
Mar 20, 2024at DETIND 122 − 103
Feb 22, 2024at INDIND 129 − 115
Dec 11, 2023at DETIND 131 − 123
Nov 24, 2023at INDIND 136 − 113
Apr 7, 2023at INDDET 122 − 115
Mar 13, 2023at DETDET 117 − 97

IND · Last 10

1−9 · streak L7
Nov 15, 2025vs TOR111 − 129L
Nov 13, 2025at PHX98 − 133L
Nov 11, 2025at UTAH128 − 152L
Nov 9, 2025at GS83 − 114L
Nov 8, 2025at DEN100 − 117L
Nov 5, 2025vs BKN103 − 112L
Nov 3, 2025vs MIL115 − 117L
Nov 1, 2025vs GS114 − 109W
Oct 31, 2025vs ATL108 − 128L
Oct 29, 2025at DAL105 − 107L

DET · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Nov 14, 2025vs PHI114 − 105W
Nov 12, 2025vs CHI124 − 113W
Nov 10, 2025vs WSH137 − 135W
Nov 9, 2025at PHI111 − 108W
Nov 7, 2025at BKN125 − 107W
Nov 5, 2025vs UTAH114 − 103W
Nov 3, 2025at MEM114 − 106W
Nov 1, 2025vs DAL122 − 110W
Oct 29, 2025vs ORL135 − 116W
Oct 27, 2025vs CLE95 − 116L