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Raptors at Pacers

NBA · Saturday, Nov 15 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final TOR 129 – IND 111
← NBA / Nov 15, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR32303928129
IND29243226111
Team box
TOR·IND
48-87
field goals
37-87
7-30
3-pointers
15-43
26-42
free throws
22-27
46
rebounds
40
29
assists
22
14
turnovers
16
78
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Pascal SiakamIND363043
Jakob PoeltlTOR262291
RJ BarrettTOR282264
Andrew NembhardIND312245
Brandon IngramTOR301952
Scottie BarnesTOR3214116

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +28
TOR +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 10 · TOR 28lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 30%, IND 70% · Updated Nov 15, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 6.1
Expected score
IND 118.8 – 112.7 TOR
Expected total
231.5
RaptorsThe matchupPacers
+229Our fair odds−229
112.7Expected points118.8
−0.34Power rating+0.24
119.8Points / game108.5
116.1Allowed / game122.7
49.4FG%39.8
37.63P%29.3
42.2Rebounds / game47.4
7−5Season record1−11
6−4Last 101−9
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Jonathan MogboOutAaron Nesmith · Bennedict Mathurin
Johnny Furphy · Kam Jones
Obi Toppin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · IND chance
Our model fair30.4%69.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+22930%————
INDIndiana Pacers−22970%————
SpreadIND by 6.1
TORToronto Raptors+6.1our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers−6.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.5
Over231.5our total————
Under231.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 6.1 expected
Toronto Raptors by 48 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%
← TOR wins byIND wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more57%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more41%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.5 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FJeremiah Robinson-Earlstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CTony Bradleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·IND
Nov 13, 2025 at CLE
last game
Nov 13, 2025 at PHX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 15, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJonathan Mogbo · g league - on assignmentOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · n/a; illnessQuestionable
TORJamison Battle · right knee; contusionQuestionable
TOROchai Agbaji · lumbar; strainQuestionable
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · left knee; sprainOut
INDBennedict Mathurin · right great toe; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · left ankle; sprainOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tornOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
TOR·IND
−0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
119.8
points / game
108.5
116.1
points allowed / game
122.7
7−5
season record
1−11
2−2
home record
1−4
5−3
away record
0−7
W2
streak
L6
6−4
last 10
1−9
49.4
FG%
39.8
37.6
3P%
29.3
42.2
rebounds / game
47.4
30.3
assists / game
23.3
13.9
turnovers / game
13.8
52.7
points in paint / game
47.0

Rating Trend

TOR · IND · 19 days
Toronto RaptorsIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 6−4
Feb 26, 2025at INDIND 111 − 91
Dec 3, 2024at TORTOR 122 − 111
Nov 18, 2024at TORTOR 130 − 119
Apr 9, 2024at TORIND 140 − 123
Feb 26, 2024at INDTOR 130 − 122
Feb 14, 2024at TORIND 127 − 125
Nov 22, 2023at INDTOR 132 − 131
Mar 22, 2023at TORIND 118 − 114
Jan 2, 2023at INDIND 122 − 114
Nov 12, 2022at INDIND 118 − 104

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 13, 2025at CLE126 − 113W
Nov 11, 2025at BKN119 − 109W
Nov 8, 2025at PHI120 − 130L
Nov 7, 2025at ATL109 − 97W
Nov 4, 2025vs MIL128 − 100W
Nov 2, 2025vs MEM117 − 104W
Oct 31, 2025at CLE112 − 101W
Oct 29, 2025vs HOU121 − 139L
Oct 27, 2025at SA103 − 121L
Oct 26, 2025at DAL129 − 139L

IND · Last 10

1−9 · streak L6
Nov 13, 2025at PHX98 − 133L
Nov 11, 2025at UTAH128 − 152L
Nov 9, 2025at GS83 − 114L
Nov 8, 2025at DEN100 − 117L
Nov 5, 2025vs BKN103 − 112L
Nov 3, 2025vs MIL115 − 117L
Nov 1, 2025vs GS114 − 109W
Oct 31, 2025vs ATL108 − 128L
Oct 29, 2025at DAL105 − 107L
Oct 26, 2025at MIN110 − 114L