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Kings at Spurs

NBA · Sunday, Nov 16 · 3:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final SAC 110 – SA 123
← NBA / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC24352625110
SA36312828123
Team box
SAC·SA
41-87
field goals
47-87
12-33
3-pointers
14-38
16-22
free throws
15-18
37
rebounds
46
25
assists
38
12
turnovers
15
44
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
De'Aaron FoxSA3528211
DeMar DeRozanSAC392724
Dennis SchroderSAC352265
Harrison BarnesSA302023
Domantas SabonisSAC3617135
Devin VassellSA341637

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +19
SAC +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 19 · SAC 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 45%, SA 55% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
SA by 1.1
Expected score
SA 118.5 – 117.4 SAC
Expected total
235.9
KingsThe matchupSpurs
+122Our fair odds−122
117.4Expected points118.5
−0.06Power rating−0.12
113.2Points / game118.4
124.5Allowed / game112.2
46.6FG%49.6
37.33P%36.4
39.5Rebounds / game45.8
3−10Season record8−4
2−8Last 106−4
Daeqwon Plowden · Devin Carter
Dylan Cardwell · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan MurrayOutDavid Jones Garcia · Dylan Harper
Riley Minix · Victor Wembanyama

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · SA chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+12245%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−12255%————
SpreadSA by 1.1
SACSacramento Kings+1.1our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.9
Over235.9our total————
Under235.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 1.1 expected
Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%
← SAC wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more43%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more29%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.9 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.569%
Total over 235.550%
Total over 245.531%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
GKeon Ellisstarted
FDomantas Sabonisstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
CLuke Kornetstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·SA
Nov 14, 2025 at MIN
last game
Nov 14, 2025 vs GS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 16, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACDevin Carter · n/a; illnessOut
SACDylan Cardwell · g league - two-wayOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left thumb; ucl injury recoveryOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SADylan Harper · left calf; strainOut
SARiley Minix · g league - two-wayOut
SAVictor Wembanyama · left calf; tightnessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
SAC·SA
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
113.2
points / game
118.4
124.5
points allowed / game
112.2
3−10
season record
8−4
2−5
home record
5−2
1−5
away record
3−2
L5
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
6−4
46.6
FG%
49.6
37.3
3P%
36.4
39.5
rebounds / game
45.8
26.5
assists / game
26.3
14.6
turnovers / game
16.9
48.2
points in paint / game
51.0

Rating Trend

SAC · SA · 20 days
Sacramento KingsSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 3−7
Mar 7, 2025at SACSAC 127 − 109
Dec 6, 2024at SASAC 140 − 113
Dec 1, 2024at SACSA 127 − 125
Nov 11, 2024at SASA 116 − 96
Mar 7, 2024at SACSAC 131 − 129
Feb 22, 2024at SACSAC 127 − 122
Nov 17, 2023at SASAC 129 − 120
Apr 2, 2023at SACSA 142 − 134
Feb 1, 2023at SASAC 119 − 109
Jan 15, 2023at SASAC 132 − 119

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Nov 14, 2025at MIN110 − 124L
Nov 12, 2025vs ATL100 − 133L
Nov 11, 2025vs DEN108 − 122L
Nov 9, 2025vs MIN117 − 144L
Nov 7, 2025vs OKC101 − 132L
Nov 5, 2025vs GS121 − 116W
Nov 3, 2025at DEN124 − 130L
Nov 1, 2025at MIL135 − 133W
Oct 29, 2025at CHI113 − 126L
Oct 28, 2025at OKC101 − 107L

SA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Nov 14, 2025vs GS108 − 109L
Nov 12, 2025vs GS120 − 125L
Nov 10, 2025at CHI121 − 117W
Nov 8, 2025vs NO126 − 119W
Nov 7, 2025vs HOU121 − 110W
Nov 5, 2025at LAL116 − 118L
Nov 2, 2025at PHX118 − 130L
Oct 30, 2025vs MIA107 − 101W
Oct 27, 2025vs TOR121 − 103W
Oct 26, 2025vs BKN118 − 107W