bayesRatings

Bulls at Pelicans

NBA · Monday, Nov 24 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final CHI 130 – NO 143
← NBA / Nov 24, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI30283537130
NO37373435143
Team box
CHI·NO
43-82
field goals
53-104
20-50
3-pointers
13-35
24-32
free throws
24-35
33
rebounds
55
29
assists
28
17
turnovers
14
44
points in paint
78
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Zion WilliamsonNO302912
Ayo DosunmuCHI322821
Coby WhiteCHI352456
Josh GiddeyCHI352176
Saddiq BeyNO3420133
Trey Murphy IIINO362044

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +22
CHI +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 22 · CHI 5lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 64%, NO 36% · Updated Nov 24, 2025

Expected margin
CHI by 6.6
Expected score
CHI 121.7 – 115.1 NO
Expected total
236.8
BullsThe matchupPelicans
−178Our fair odds+178
121.7Expected points115.1
−0.03Power rating−0.88
120.8Points / game108.6
123.1Allowed / game121.4
47.2FG%44.2
37.93P%33.3
47.2Rebounds / game41.8
9−7Season record2−15
4−6Last 101−9
Dalen Terry · Isaac Okoro
Trentyn Flowers · Zach CollinsOutDejounte Murray · Herbert Jones
Jordan Hawkins · Jordan Poole
Karlo Matkovic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · NO chance
Our model fair64.1%35.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bulls−17864%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+17836%————
SpreadCHI by 6.6
CHIChicago Bulls−6.6our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+6.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.8
Over236.8our total————
Under236.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bulls by 6.6 expected
Chicago Bulls by 48 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 47 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%
← CHI wins byNO wins by →
Chicago Bulls wins by 5 or more59%
Chicago Bulls wins by 10 or more42%
Chicago Bulls wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.8 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.569%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.531%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Chicago Bulls
GCoby Whitestarted
GAyo Dosunmustarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FPatrick Williamsstarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·NO
Nov 22, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Nov 22, 2025 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 24, 5:00 PM ET
Chicago Bulls
CHIDalen Terry · left calf; strainOut
CHIIsaac Okoro · left lumbar; radiculopathyOut
CHITrentyn Flowers · n/a; illnessOut
CHIZach Collins · left scaphoid; fractureOut
CHIKevin Huerter · n/a; illness; left pelvis sorenessQuestionable
CHINikola Vucevic · right knee; sorenessQuestionable
CHIPatrick Williams · left wrist; sprainQuestionable
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHerbert Jones · right calf; strainOut
NOJordan Hawkins · personal reasonsOut
NOJordan Poole · left quad; strainOut
NOKarlo Matkovic · right calf; strainOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
CHI·NO
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.88
120.8
points / game
108.6
123.1
points allowed / game
121.4
9−7
season record
2−15
6−2
home record
1−8
3−5
away record
1−7
W1
streak
L9
4−6
last 10
1−9
47.2
FG%
44.2
37.9
3P%
33.3
47.2
rebounds / game
41.8
29.7
assists / game
22.8
15.3
turnovers / game
15.7
54.6
points in paint / game
51.6

Rating Trend

CHI · NO · 28 days
Chicago BullsNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NO 5−3
Jan 14, 2025at CHINO 119 − 113
Oct 23, 2024at NONO 123 − 111
Feb 25, 2024at NOCHI 114 − 106
Dec 2, 2023at CHICHI 124 − 118
Nov 16, 2022at NONO 124 − 110
Nov 9, 2022at CHINO 115 − 111
Mar 24, 2022at NONO 126 − 109
Oct 22, 2021at CHICHI 128 − 112

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Nov 22, 2025vs WSH121 − 120W
Nov 21, 2025vs MIA107 − 143L
Nov 19, 2025at POR122 − 121W
Nov 17, 2025at DEN130 − 127W
Nov 16, 2025at UTAH147 − 150L
Nov 12, 2025at DET113 − 124L
Nov 10, 2025vs SA117 − 121L
Nov 8, 2025at CLE122 − 128L
Nov 7, 2025at MIL110 − 126L
Nov 4, 2025vs PHI113 − 111W

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak L9
Nov 22, 2025vs ATL98 − 115L
Nov 21, 2025at DAL115 − 118L
Nov 19, 2025vs DEN118 − 125L
Nov 17, 2025vs OKC109 − 126L
Nov 16, 2025vs GS106 − 124L
Nov 14, 2025vs LAL104 − 118L
Nov 12, 2025vs POR117 − 125L
Nov 10, 2025at PHX98 − 121L
Nov 8, 2025at SA119 − 126L
Nov 5, 2025at DAL101 − 99W