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Heat at Bulls

NBA · Friday, Nov 21 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final MIA 143 – CHI 107
← NBA / Nov 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA36343241143
CHI32202332107
Team box
MIA·CHI
47-100
field goals
37-90
14-38
3-pointers
12-43
35-44
free throws
21-28
53
rebounds
39
35
assists
26
10
turnovers
18
56
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ayo DosunmuCHI332314
Kel'el WareMIA2820141
Josh GiddeyCHI3119119
Norman PowellMIA251922
Bam AdebayoMIA291875
Pelle LarssonMIA261627

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +41
MIA +41
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 7 · MIA 41lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 44%, CHI 56% · Updated Nov 21, 2025

Expected margin
CHI by 1.2
Expected score
CHI 118.8 – 117.7 MIA
Expected total
236.5
HeatThe matchupBulls
+125Our fair odds−125
117.7Expected points118.8
+0.01Power rating−0.03
123.6Points / game121.7
119.8Allowed / game121.9
48.3FG%48.1
38.33P%39.4
44.7Rebounds / game47.3
9−6Season record8−6
6−4Last 104−6
Andrew Wiggins · Kasparas Jakucionis
Nikola Jovic · Terry Rozier
Tyler HerroOut (5 each)Emanuel Miller · Lachlan Olbrich
Noa Essengue · Trentyn Flowers
Zach Collins

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · CHI chance
Our model fair44.4%55.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+12544%————
CHIChicago Bulls−12556%————
SpreadCHI by 1.2
MIAMiami Heat+1.2our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.5
Over236.5our total————
Under236.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bulls by 1.2 expected
Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%
← MIA wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bulls wins by 5 or more44%
Chicago Bulls wins by 10 or more30%
Chicago Bulls wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.5 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted
Chicago Bulls
GAyo Dosunmustarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
CNikola Vucevicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·CHI
Nov 19, 2025 vs GS
last game
Nov 19, 2025 at POR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 21, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAAndrew Wiggins · left hip flexor; strainOut
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · g league - on assignmentOut
MIANikola Jovic · right hip; impingementOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
Chicago Bulls
CHIEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
CHILachlan Olbrich · g league - two-wayOut
CHINoa Essengue · g league - on assignmentOut
CHITrentyn Flowers · n/a; illnessOut
CHIZach Collins · left scaphoid; fractureOut
CHICoby White · right calf; strain; injury managementQuestionable
CHITre Jones · left ankle; impingementQuestionable
CHIJalen Smith · right pectoralis; strainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
MIA·CHI
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
123.6
points / game
121.7
119.8
points allowed / game
121.9
9−6
season record
8−6
7−1
home record
5−1
2−5
away record
3−5
W2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
4−6
48.3
FG%
48.1
38.3
3P%
39.4
44.7
rebounds / game
47.3
30.3
assists / game
30.2
14.9
turnovers / game
15.5
57.2
points in paint / game
54.6

Rating Trend

MIA · CHI · 25 days
Miami HeatChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 8−2
Apr 9, 2025at CHICHI 119 − 111
Mar 8, 2025at MIACHI 114 − 109
Feb 4, 2025at CHICHI 133 − 124
Dec 16, 2023at MIAMIA 118 − 116
Dec 14, 2023at MIACHI 124 − 116
Nov 20, 2023at CHIMIA 118 − 100
Nov 18, 2023at CHICHI 102 − 97
Mar 18, 2023at CHICHI 113 − 99
Dec 20, 2022at MIACHI 113 − 103
Oct 19, 2022at MIACHI 116 − 108

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 19, 2025vs GS110 − 96W
Nov 17, 2025vs NY115 − 113W
Nov 14, 2025at NY132 − 140L
Nov 12, 2025vs CLE116 − 130L
Nov 10, 2025vs CLE140 − 138W
Nov 8, 2025vs POR136 − 131W
Nov 7, 2025vs CHA126 − 108W
Nov 5, 2025at DEN112 − 122L
Nov 3, 2025at LAC120 − 119W
Nov 2, 2025at LAL120 − 130L

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Nov 19, 2025at POR122 − 121W
Nov 17, 2025at DEN130 − 127W
Nov 16, 2025at UTAH147 − 150L
Nov 12, 2025at DET113 − 124L
Nov 10, 2025vs SA117 − 121L
Nov 8, 2025at CLE122 − 128L
Nov 7, 2025at MIL110 − 126L
Nov 4, 2025vs PHI113 − 111W
Nov 2, 2025at NY116 − 128L
Oct 31, 2025vs NY135 − 125W