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Heat at Magic

NBA · Friday, Dec 5 · 6:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final MIA 105 – ORL 106
← NBA / Dec 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA28321926105
ORL30273019106
Team box
MIA·ORL
40-80
field goals
38-92
7-19
3-pointers
12-34
18-27
free throws
18-24
44
rebounds
42
23
assists
24
15
turnovers
10
52
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Franz WagnerORL343253
Norman PowellMIA322834
Bam AdebayoMIA4024153
Jalen SuggsORL282235
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA331632
Anthony BlackORL321386

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +10
MIA +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 10 · MIA 9lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 43%, ORL 57% · Updated Dec 5, 2025

Expected margin
ORL by 3.0
Expected score
ORL 110.6 – 107.6 MIA
Expected total
218.2
HeatThe matchupMagic
+132Our fair odds−132
107.6Expected points110.6
+0.15Power rating+0.19
123.6Points / game119.2
118.4Allowed / game114.3
47.9FG%47.6
37.43P%33.5
46.0Rebounds / game45.0
14−8Season record13−9
7−3Last 107−3
Kasparas Jakucionis · Myron Gardner
Terry Rozier · Tyler Herro
Vladislav GoldinOutColin Castleton · Jamal Cain
Moritz Wagner · Orlando Robinson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · ORL chance
Our model fair43.1%56.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+13243%————
ORLOrlando Magic−13257%————
SpreadORL by 3.0
MIAMiami Heat+3our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic−3our margin————
Totalwe expect 218.2
Over218.2our total————
Under218.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 3.0 expected
Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%
← MIA wins byORL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more48%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more34%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

218.2 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 208.569%
Total over 218.549%
Total over 228.529%
Total from 209 to 22839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FFranz Wagnerstarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·ORL
Dec 3, 2025 at DAL
last game
Dec 3, 2025 vs SA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 5, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · g league - on assignmentOut
MIAMyron Gardner · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · right big toe; irritationOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLJamal Cain · g league - two-wayOut
ORLMoritz Wagner · left knee; injury recoveryOut
ORLOrlando Robinson · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
MIA·ORL
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
123.6
points / game
119.2
118.4
points allowed / game
114.3
14−8
season record
13−9
10−2
home record
8−4
4−6
away record
5−5
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
7−3
47.9
FG%
47.6
37.4
3P%
33.5
46.0
rebounds / game
45.0
30.2
assists / game
25.6
14.3
turnovers / game
14.7
56.7
points in paint / game
55.0

Rating Trend

MIA · ORL · 38 days
Miami HeatOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ORL 4−6
Oct 22, 2025at ORLORL 125 − 121
Jan 27, 2025at MIAMIA 125 − 119
Dec 26, 2024at ORLMIA 89 − 88
Dec 21, 2024at ORLORL 121 − 114
Oct 23, 2024at MIAORL 116 − 97
Feb 6, 2024at MIAMIA 121 − 95
Jan 21, 2024at ORLORL 105 − 87
Jan 12, 2024at MIAMIA 99 − 96
Dec 20, 2023at ORLMIA 115 − 106
Apr 9, 2023at MIAMIA 123 − 110

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 3, 2025at DAL108 − 118L
Dec 1, 2025vs LAC140 − 123W
Nov 29, 2025vs DET135 − 138L
Nov 26, 2025vs MIL106 − 103W
Nov 24, 2025vs DAL106 − 102W
Nov 23, 2025at PHI127 − 117W
Nov 21, 2025at CHI143 − 107W
Nov 19, 2025vs GS110 − 96W
Nov 17, 2025vs NY115 − 113W
Nov 14, 2025at NY132 − 140L

ORL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 3, 2025vs SA112 − 114L
Dec 1, 2025vs CHI125 − 120W
Nov 28, 2025at DET112 − 109W
Nov 25, 2025at PHI144 − 103W
Nov 23, 2025at BOS129 − 138L
Nov 22, 2025vs NY133 − 121W
Nov 20, 2025vs LAC129 − 101W
Nov 18, 2025vs GS121 − 113W
Nov 16, 2025at HOU113 − 117L
Nov 14, 2025vs BKN105 − 98W