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Bucks at Heat

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 26 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final MIL 103 – MIA 106
← NBA / Nov 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL27203026103
MIA29242825106
Team box
MIL·MIA
40-95
field goals
39-85
14-42
3-pointers
10-36
9-14
free throws
18-20
47
rebounds
47
31
assists
32
14
turnovers
14
44
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyler HerroMIA322957
Ryan RollinsMIL412675
Myles TurnerMIL312482
Bam AdebayoMIA2917112
Gary Trent Jr.MIL351512
AJ GreenMIL361258

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +12
MIL +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 12 · MIL 6lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 41%, MIA 59% · Updated Nov 26, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 3.2
Expected score
MIA 116.2 – 113.1 MIL
Expected total
229.3
BucksThe matchupHeat
+141Our fair odds−141
113.1Expected points116.2
+0.03Power rating+0.13
116.5Points / game123.9
119.3Allowed / game117.9
49.5FG%48.1
41.43P%36.9
39.6Rebounds / game46.4
8−10Season record12−6
3−7Last 108−2
Alex Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Taurean PrinceOut (3 each)Kasparas Jakucionis · Terry Rozier
Vladislav Goldin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair41.4%58.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+14141%————
MIAMiami Heat−14159%————
SpreadMIA by 3.2
MILMilwaukee Bucks+3.2our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.3
Over229.3our total————
Under229.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 3.2 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%
← MIL wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more49%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more34%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

229.3 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·MIA
Nov 24, 2025 vs POR
last game
Nov 24, 2025 vs DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 25, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; meniscus surgeryOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgeryOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left adductor; strainQuestionable
Miami Heat
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · g league - on assignmentOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
MIL·MIA
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
116.5
points / game
123.9
119.3
points allowed / game
117.9
8−10
season record
12−6
5−6
home record
8−1
3−4
away record
4−5
L5
streak
W5
3−7
last 10
8−2
49.5
FG%
48.1
41.4
3P%
36.9
39.6
rebounds / game
46.4
26.8
assists / game
30.2
14.6
turnovers / game
14.4
47.7
points in paint / game
58.3

Rating Trend

MIL · MIA · 30 days
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Apr 5, 2025at MIAMIL 121 − 115
Feb 23, 2025at MILMIL 120 − 113
Jan 23, 2025at MILMIL 125 − 96
Nov 26, 2024at MIAMIL 106 − 103
Feb 13, 2024at MILMIA 123 − 97
Nov 28, 2023at MIAMIL 131 − 124
Oct 30, 2023at MILMIL 122 − 114
Apr 26, 2023at MILMIA 128 − 126post
Apr 24, 2023at MIAMIA 119 − 114post
Apr 22, 2023at MIAMIA 121 − 99post

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Nov 24, 2025vs POR103 − 115L
Nov 22, 2025vs DET116 − 129L
Nov 20, 2025vs PHI114 − 123L
Nov 17, 2025at CLE106 − 118L
Nov 15, 2025vs LAL95 − 119L
Nov 14, 2025vs CHA147 − 134W
Nov 12, 2025at CHA100 − 111L
Nov 10, 2025at DAL116 − 114W
Nov 9, 2025vs HOU115 − 122L
Nov 7, 2025vs CHI126 − 110W

MIA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Nov 24, 2025vs DAL106 − 102W
Nov 23, 2025at PHI127 − 117W
Nov 21, 2025at CHI143 − 107W
Nov 19, 2025vs GS110 − 96W
Nov 17, 2025vs NY115 − 113W
Nov 14, 2025at NY132 − 140L
Nov 12, 2025vs CLE116 − 130L
Nov 10, 2025vs CLE140 − 138W
Nov 8, 2025vs POR136 − 131W
Nov 7, 2025vs CHA126 − 108W