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Mavericks at Heat

NBA · Monday, Nov 24 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final DAL 102 – MIA 106
← NBA / Nov 24, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL19252830102
MIA20322826106
Team box
DAL·MIA
38-97
field goals
42-94
12-40
3-pointers
5-27
14-16
free throws
17-24
50
rebounds
53
22
assists
22
16
turnovers
14
52
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
P.J. WashingtonDAL342781
Tyler HerroMIA292470
Kel'el WareMIA3420180
Bam AdebayoMIA291761
Max ChristieDAL301552
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA331365

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +13
DAL +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 13 · DAL 5lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 37%, MIA 63% · Updated Nov 24, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 4.4
Expected score
MIA 115.6 – 111.2 DAL
Expected total
226.8
MavericksThe matchupHeat
+167Our fair odds−167
111.2Expected points115.6
−0.26Power rating+0.01
109.9Points / game124.9
116.0Allowed / game118.9
44.5FG%48.2
31.83P%37.9
45.2Rebounds / game46.0
5−13Season record11−6
3−7Last 107−3
Dante Exum · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie IrvingOutAndrew Wiggins · Nikola Jovic
Norman Powell · Terry Rozier
Vladislav Goldin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · MIA chance
Our model fair37.4%62.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+16737%————
MIAMiami Heat−16763%————
SpreadMIA by 4.4
DALDallas Mavericks+4.4our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−4.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.8
Over226.8our total————
Under226.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 4.4 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%
← DAL wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more52%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more37%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.8 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.570%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GBrandon Williamsstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·MIA
Nov 22, 2025 vs MEM
last game
Nov 23, 2025 at PHI
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 24, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; injury managementOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; injury managementOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALAnthony Davis · left calf; strainDoubtful
DALBrandon Williams · low back; tightnessQuestionable
DALRyan Nembhard · left knee; sprainQuestionable
Miami Heat
MIAAndrew Wiggins · left hip flexor; strainOut
MIANikola Jovic · right hip; impingementOut
MIANorman Powell · left groin; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
DAL·MIA
−0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
109.9
points / game
124.9
116.0
points allowed / game
118.9
5−13
season record
11−6
4−9
home record
7−1
1−4
away record
4−5
L1
streak
W4
3−7
last 10
7−3
44.5
FG%
48.2
31.8
3P%
37.9
45.2
rebounds / game
46.0
23.9
assists / game
30.6
16.9
turnovers / game
14.5
48.3
points in paint / game
58.0

Rating Trend

DAL · MIA · 28 days
Dallas MavericksMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIA 3−5
Feb 13, 2025at DALDAL 118 − 113
Nov 24, 2024at MIAMIA 123 − 118
Apr 10, 2024at MIADAL 111 − 92
Mar 7, 2024at DALDAL 114 − 108
Apr 1, 2023at MIAMIA 129 − 122
Jan 20, 2023at DALDAL 115 − 90
Feb 15, 2022at MIADAL 107 − 99
Nov 2, 2021at DALMIA 125 − 110

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Nov 22, 2025vs MEM96 − 102L
Nov 21, 2025vs NO118 − 115W
Nov 19, 2025vs NY111 − 113L
Nov 17, 2025at MIN96 − 120L
Nov 16, 2025vs POR138 − 133W
Nov 14, 2025vs LAC127 − 133L
Nov 12, 2025vs PHX114 − 123L
Nov 10, 2025vs MIL114 − 116L
Nov 8, 2025at WSH111 − 105W
Nov 7, 2025at MEM104 − 118L

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Nov 23, 2025at PHI127 − 117W
Nov 21, 2025at CHI143 − 107W
Nov 19, 2025vs GS110 − 96W
Nov 17, 2025vs NY115 − 113W
Nov 14, 2025at NY132 − 140L
Nov 12, 2025vs CLE116 − 130L
Nov 10, 2025vs CLE140 − 138W
Nov 8, 2025vs POR136 − 131W
Nov 7, 2025vs CHA126 − 108W
Nov 5, 2025at DEN112 − 122L