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Heat at 76ers

NBA · Sunday, Nov 23 · 12:00 PM CT · Xfinity Mobile Arena · Final MIA 127 – PHI 117
← NBA / Nov 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA37342828127
PHI27402624117
Team box
MIA·PHI
48-98
field goals
44-98
11-32
3-pointers
14-41
20-30
free throws
15-19
58
rebounds
47
32
assists
28
13
turnovers
15
72
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Norman PowellMIA293241
Tyrese MaxeyPHI362736
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA332227
Kel'el WareMIA2620160
Trendon WatfordPHI261997
Bam AdebayoMIA3318131

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +16
MIA +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 0 · MIA 16lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 52%, PHI 48% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 0.9
Expected score
MIA 113.8 – 112.8 PHI
Expected total
226.6
HeatThe matchup76ers
−107Our fair odds+107
113.8Expected points112.8
+0.01Power rating−0.32
124.8Points / game118.4
119.0Allowed / game116.1
48.2FG%46.3
38.23P%37.7
45.2Rebounds / game44.5
10−6Season record9−6
7−3Last 105−5
Andrew Wiggins · Kasparas Jakucionis
Nikola Jovic · Terry Rozier
Tyler HerroOutAdem Bona · Joel Embiid
Kelly Oubre Jr. · VJ Edgecombe

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · PHI chance
Our model fair51.6%48.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat−10752%————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+10748%————
SpreadMIA by 0.9
MIAMiami Heat−0.9our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.6
Over226.6our total————
Under226.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 0.9 expected
Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%
← MIA wins byPHI wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more42%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more29%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.6 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted
Philadelphia 76ers
GQuentin Grimesstarted
GTyrese Maxeystarted
FPaul Georgestarted
FJustin Edwardsstarted
CAndre Drummondstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·PHI
Nov 21, 2025 at CHI
last game
Nov 20, 2025 at MIL
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 23, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAAndrew Wiggins · left hip flexor; strainOut
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · g league - on assignmentOut
MIANikola Jovic · right hip; impingementOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIAdem Bona · right ankle; sprainOut
PHIJoel Embiid · right knee; injury managementOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · left knee; sprainOut
PHIVJ Edgecombe · left calf; tightnessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
MIA·PHI
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.32
124.8
points / game
118.4
119.0
points allowed / game
116.1
10−6
season record
9−6
7−1
home record
5−3
3−5
away record
4−3
W3
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
48.2
FG%
46.3
38.2
3P%
37.7
45.2
rebounds / game
44.5
30.6
assists / game
25.9
14.6
turnovers / game
14.7
57.1
points in paint / game
49.1

Rating Trend

MIA · PHI · 27 days
Miami HeatPhiladelphia 76ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 3−7
Apr 7, 2025at MIAMIA 117 − 105
Mar 29, 2025at PHIMIA 118 − 95
Feb 5, 2025at PHIMIA 108 − 101
Nov 18, 2024at MIAMIA 106 − 89
Apr 4, 2024at MIAPHI 109 − 105
Mar 18, 2024at PHIPHI 98 − 91
Feb 14, 2024at PHIMIA 109 − 104
Dec 25, 2023at MIAMIA 119 − 113
Apr 6, 2023at PHIMIA 129 − 101
Mar 1, 2023at MIAPHI 119 − 96

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Nov 21, 2025at CHI143 − 107W
Nov 19, 2025vs GS110 − 96W
Nov 17, 2025vs NY115 − 113W
Nov 14, 2025at NY132 − 140L
Nov 12, 2025vs CLE116 − 130L
Nov 10, 2025vs CLE140 − 138W
Nov 8, 2025vs POR136 − 131W
Nov 7, 2025vs CHA126 − 108W
Nov 5, 2025at DEN112 − 122L
Nov 3, 2025at LAC120 − 119W

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 20, 2025at MIL123 − 114W
Nov 19, 2025vs TOR112 − 121L
Nov 17, 2025vs LAC110 − 108W
Nov 14, 2025at DET105 − 114L
Nov 11, 2025vs BOS102 − 100W
Nov 9, 2025vs DET108 − 111L
Nov 8, 2025vs TOR130 − 120W
Nov 5, 2025at CLE121 − 132L
Nov 4, 2025at CHI111 − 113L
Nov 2, 2025at BKN129 − 105W