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Mavericks at Timberwolves

NBA · Monday, Nov 17 · 7:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final DAL 96 – MIN 120
← NBA / Nov 17, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL2123223096
MIN34273722120
Team box
DAL·MIN
34-85
field goals
44-97
9-30
3-pointers
14-44
19-31
free throws
18-25
43
rebounds
59
13
assists
27
20
turnovers
17
42
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Naz ReidMIN2322122
Jaden HardyDAL141730
Rudy GobertMIN291594
Jaden McDanielsMIN231553
Brandon WilliamsDAL241552
Cooper FlaggDAL271512

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +33
DAL +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 33 · DAL 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 26%, MIN 74% · Updated Nov 17, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 10.0
Expected score
MIN 116.6 – 106.6 DAL
Expected total
223.2
MavericksThe matchupTimberwolves
+284Our fair odds−284
106.6Expected points116.6
−0.19Power rating+0.62
111.3Points / game120.7
117.0Allowed / game115.8
45.3FG%50.1
31.13P%38.9
45.2Rebounds / game42.4
4−10Season record8−5
3−7Last 106−4
Anthony Davis · Daniel Gafford
Dante Exum · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie IrvingOutEnrique Freeman · Rocco Zikarsky
Terrence Shannon Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair26.0%74.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+28426%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−28474%————
SpreadMIN by 10.0
DALDallas Mavericks+10our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−10our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.2
Over223.2our total————
Under223.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 10.0 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 52 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 51 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 50 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 50 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 51 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 52 points: <1%
← DAL wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more66%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more51%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more36%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.2 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.529%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GBrandon Williamsstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
CMoussa Cissestarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·MIN
Nov 16, 2025 vs POR
last game
Nov 15, 2025 vs DEN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 17, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALAnthony Davis · left calf; strainOut
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; injury managementOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; injury managementOut
DALDereck Lively II · right knee; injury managementOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALRyan Nembhard · left knee; sprainOut
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left fifth metatarsal; bone bruiseOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
DAL·MIN
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.62
111.3
points / game
120.7
117.0
points allowed / game
115.8
4−10
season record
8−5
3−7
home record
3−3
1−3
away record
5−2
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
6−4
45.3
FG%
50.1
31.1
3P%
38.9
45.2
rebounds / game
42.4
24.7
assists / game
26.4
16.9
turnovers / game
15.1
50.9
points in paint / game
52.5

Rating Trend

DAL · MIN · 21 days
Dallas MavericksMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Jan 22, 2025at DALMIN 115 − 114
Dec 25, 2024at DALMIN 105 − 99
Oct 29, 2024at MINDAL 120 − 114
May 30, 2024at MINDAL 124 − 103post
May 28, 2024at DALMIN 105 − 100post
May 26, 2024at DALDAL 116 − 107post
May 24, 2024at MINDAL 109 − 108post
May 22, 2024at MINDAL 108 − 105post
Jan 31, 2024at MINMIN 121 − 87
Jan 7, 2024at DALDAL 115 − 108

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Nov 16, 2025vs POR138 − 133W
Nov 14, 2025vs LAC127 − 133L
Nov 12, 2025vs PHX114 − 123L
Nov 10, 2025vs MIL114 − 116L
Nov 8, 2025at WSH111 − 105W
Nov 7, 2025at MEM104 − 118L
Nov 5, 2025vs NO99 − 101L
Nov 3, 2025at HOU102 − 110L
Nov 1, 2025at DET110 − 122L
Oct 29, 2025vs IND107 − 105W

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 15, 2025vs DEN112 − 123L
Nov 14, 2025vs SAC124 − 110W
Nov 10, 2025at UTAH120 − 113W
Nov 9, 2025at SAC144 − 117W
Nov 7, 2025vs UTAH137 − 97W
Nov 5, 2025at NY114 − 137L
Nov 3, 2025at BKN125 − 109W
Nov 1, 2025at CHA122 − 105W
Oct 29, 2025vs LAL115 − 116L
Oct 27, 2025vs DEN114 − 127L