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Grizzlies at Mavericks

NBA · Saturday, Nov 22 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final MEM 102 – DAL 96
← NBA / Nov 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM21223326102
DAL2225262396
Team box
MEM·DAL
37-92
field goals
35-91
8-31
3-pointers
12-36
20-24
free throws
14-16
61
rebounds
41
26
assists
19
13
turnovers
10
52
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Klay ThompsonDAL282210
Santi AldamaMEM352084
Brandon WilliamsDAL321834
Cam SpencerMEM241745
P.J. WashingtonDAL321584
Naji MarshallDAL301374

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +9
MEM +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 6 · MEM 9lead changes: 17

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 48%, DAL 52% · Updated Nov 22, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 0.2
Expected score
DAL 116.3 – 116.2 MEM
Expected total
232.5
GrizzliesThe matchupMavericks
+108Our fair odds−108
116.2Expected points116.3
−0.08Power rating−0.26
112.8Points / game110.8
117.8Allowed / game116.8
43.2FG%44.9
32.63P%31.7
44.9Rebounds / game45.5
5−11Season record5−12
2−8Last 103−7
Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Javon Small · Scotty Pippen Jr.
Ty JeromeOutAnthony Davis · Dante Exum
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · DAL chance
Our model fair48.0%52.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+10848%————
DALDallas Mavericks−10852%————
SpreadDAL by 0.2
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+0.2our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.5
Over232.5our total————
Under232.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 0.2 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%
← MEM wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more41%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more27%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more16%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.5 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GVince Williams Jr.started
FSanti Aldamastarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CZach Edeystarted
Dallas Mavericks
GBrandon Williamsstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·DAL
Nov 20, 2025 vs SAC
last game
Nov 21, 2025 vs NO
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 22, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMJa Morant · right calf; strainOut
MEMJavon Small · left toe; turf toeOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMJaren Jackson Jr. · right ankle; sprainDoubtful
Dallas Mavericks
DALAnthony Davis · left calf; strainOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; injury managementOut
DALDereck Lively II · right knee; injury managementOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALRyan Nembhard · left knee; sprainDoubtful
DALD'Angelo Russell · illness; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
MEM·DAL
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.26
112.8
points / game
110.8
117.8
points allowed / game
116.8
5−11
season record
5−12
4−5
home record
4−8
1−6
away record
1−4
W1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
3−7
43.2
FG%
44.9
32.6
3P%
31.7
44.9
rebounds / game
45.5
28.5
assists / game
24.2
14.4
turnovers / game
17.4
46.1
points in paint / game
48.5

Rating Trend

MEM · DAL · 26 days
Memphis GrizzliesDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 3−7
Nov 7, 2025at MEMMEM 118 − 104
Apr 13, 2025at MEMMEM 132 − 97
Mar 7, 2025at DALMEM 122 − 111
Jan 6, 2025at MEMMEM 119 − 104
Dec 3, 2024at DALDAL 121 − 116
Jan 9, 2024at DALMEM 120 − 103
Dec 11, 2023at MEMDAL 120 − 113
Dec 1, 2023at DALMEM 108 − 94
Oct 30, 2023at MEMDAL 125 − 110
Mar 20, 2023at MEMMEM 112 − 108

MEM · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Nov 20, 2025vs SAC137 − 96W
Nov 18, 2025at SA101 − 111L
Nov 15, 2025at CLE100 − 108L
Nov 12, 2025at BOS95 − 131L
Nov 11, 2025at NY120 − 133L
Nov 9, 2025vs OKC100 − 114L
Nov 7, 2025vs DAL118 − 104W
Nov 5, 2025vs HOU109 − 124L
Nov 3, 2025vs DET106 − 114L
Nov 2, 2025at TOR104 − 117L

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Nov 21, 2025vs NO118 − 115W
Nov 19, 2025vs NY111 − 113L
Nov 17, 2025at MIN96 − 120L
Nov 16, 2025vs POR138 − 133W
Nov 14, 2025vs LAC127 − 133L
Nov 12, 2025vs PHX114 − 123L
Nov 10, 2025vs MIL114 − 116L
Nov 8, 2025at WSH111 − 105W
Nov 7, 2025at MEM104 − 118L
Nov 5, 2025vs NO99 − 101L