bayesRatings

Kings at Grizzlies

NBA · Thursday, Nov 20 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final SAC 96 – MEM 137
← NBA / Nov 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC2225292096
MEM35403824137
Team box
SAC·MEM
37-80
field goals
50-99
11-33
3-pointers
17-54
11-15
free throws
20-26
32
rebounds
49
24
assists
42
17
turnovers
8
40
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Santi AldamaMEM282953
Zach LaVineSAC262622
Jock LandaleMEM152160
Cedric CowardMEM251944
Zach EdeyMEM251640
Jaylen WellsMEM191312

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +48
SAC +48
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 48 · SAC 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 41%, MEM 59% · Updated Nov 20, 2025

Expected margin
MEM by 2.4
Expected score
MEM 119.8 – 117.4 SAC
Expected total
237.2
KingsThe matchupGrizzlies
+145Our fair odds−145
117.4Expected points119.8
−0.19Power rating−0.08
112.0Points / game111.1
123.6Allowed / game119.2
46.5FG%42.7
36.73P%32.7
39.7Rebounds / game44.7
3−12Season record4−11
2−8Last 101−9
Daeqwon Plowden · Domantas Sabonis
Dylan Cardwell · Isaiah StevensOutBrandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Javon Small · Scotty Pippen Jr.
Ty Jerome

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · MEM chance
Our model fair40.8%59.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+14541%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−14559%————
SpreadMEM by 2.4
SACSacramento Kings+2.4our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.2
Over237.2our total————
Under237.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 2.4 expected
Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%
← SAC wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more47%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more32%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.2 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.567%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
FDrew Eubanksstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GVince Williams Jr.started
FSanti Aldamastarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CZach Edeystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·MEM
Nov 19, 2025 at OKC
last game
Nov 18, 2025 at SA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 20, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; sorenessOut
SACDylan Cardwell · g league - two-wayOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMJa Morant · right calf; strainOut
MEMJavon Small · left toe; turf toeOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMJaren Jackson Jr. · right ankle; sprainDoubtful

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
SAC·MEM
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
112.0
points / game
111.1
123.6
points allowed / game
119.2
3−12
season record
4−11
2−5
home record
3−5
1−7
away record
1−6
L7
streak
L5
2−8
last 10
1−9
46.5
FG%
42.7
36.7
3P%
32.7
39.7
rebounds / game
44.7
26.0
assists / game
27.6
14.7
turnovers / game
14.8
47.9
points in paint / game
45.5

Rating Trend

SAC · MEM · 24 days
Sacramento KingsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 3−7
Mar 17, 2025at SACSAC 132 − 122
Jan 3, 2025at SACSAC 138 − 133
Dec 5, 2024at MEMMEM 115 − 110
Mar 18, 2024at SACSAC 121 − 111
Jan 29, 2024at MEMSAC 103 − 94
Dec 31, 2023at MEMSAC 123 − 92
Jan 23, 2023at SACSAC 133 − 100
Jan 1, 2023at MEMMEM 118 − 108
Nov 22, 2022at MEMSAC 113 − 109
Oct 27, 2022at SACMEM 125 − 110

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L7
Nov 19, 2025at OKC99 − 113L
Nov 16, 2025at SA110 − 123L
Nov 14, 2025at MIN110 − 124L
Nov 12, 2025vs ATL100 − 133L
Nov 11, 2025vs DEN108 − 122L
Nov 9, 2025vs MIN117 − 144L
Nov 7, 2025vs OKC101 − 132L
Nov 5, 2025vs GS121 − 116W
Nov 3, 2025at DEN124 − 130L
Nov 1, 2025at MIL135 − 133W

MEM · Last 10

1−9 · streak L5
Nov 18, 2025at SA101 − 111L
Nov 15, 2025at CLE100 − 108L
Nov 12, 2025at BOS95 − 131L
Nov 11, 2025at NY120 − 133L
Nov 9, 2025vs OKC100 − 114L
Nov 7, 2025vs DAL118 − 104W
Nov 5, 2025vs HOU109 − 124L
Nov 3, 2025vs DET106 − 114L
Nov 2, 2025at TOR104 − 117L
Oct 31, 2025vs LAL112 − 117L