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Kings at Thunder

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 19 · 7:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final SAC 99 – OKC 113
← NBA / Nov 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC2525193099
OKC27312530113
Team box
SAC·OKC
38-86
field goals
41-88
8-28
3-pointers
10-38
15-23
free throws
21-23
45
rebounds
45
21
assists
22
18
turnovers
16
48
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC363383
Chet HolmgrenOKC312171
Dennis SchroderSAC322153
DeMar DeRozanSAC351735
Malik MonkSAC271632
Precious AchiuwaSAC261593

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +18
SAC +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 18 · SAC 1lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 14%, OKC 86% · Updated Nov 19, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 17.0
Expected score
OKC 123.9 – 106.9 SAC
Expected total
230.8
KingsThe matchupThunder
+632Our fair odds−632
106.9Expected points123.9
−0.19Power rating+1.42
112.9Points / game121.9
124.4Allowed / game106.4
46.6FG%48.1
37.23P%35.2
39.4Rebounds / game46.6
3−11Season record14−1
2−8Last 109−1
Daeqwon Plowden · Domantas Sabonis
Dylan Cardwell · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan MurrayOut (5 each)Aaron Wiggins · Jalen Williams
Kenrich Williams · Nikola Topic
Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · OKC chance
Our model fair13.7%86.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+63214%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−63286%————
SpreadOKC by 17.0
SACSacramento Kings+17our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−17our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.8
Over230.8our total————
Under230.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 17.0 expected
Sacramento Kings by 53 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 52 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 51 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 50 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← SAC wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more83%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more71%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more56%
Within 5 points either way14%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.8 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.550%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
FDrew Eubanksstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·OKC
Nov 16, 2025 at SA
last game
Nov 17, 2025 at NO
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 18, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; sorenessOut
SACDylan Cardwell · g league - two-wayOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left thumb; ucl injury recoveryOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAaron Wiggins · left adductor; strainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
SAC·OKC
−0.19
rating (0 = average)
+1.42
112.9
points / game
121.9
124.4
points allowed / game
106.4
3−11
season record
14−1
2−5
home record
6−0
1−6
away record
8−1
L6
streak
W6
2−8
last 10
9−1
46.6
FG%
48.1
37.2
3P%
35.2
39.4
rebounds / game
46.6
26.4
assists / game
25.8
14.4
turnovers / game
12.8
47.9
points in paint / game
51.9

Rating Trend

SAC · OKC · 23 days
Sacramento KingsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 7−3
Nov 7, 2025at SACOKC 132 − 101
Oct 28, 2025at OKCOKC 107 − 101
Mar 25, 2025at SACOKC 121 − 105
Feb 1, 2025at OKCOKC 144 − 110
Nov 25, 2024at SACOKC 130 − 109
Apr 9, 2024at OKCOKC 112 − 105
Feb 11, 2024at OKCOKC 127 − 113
Dec 14, 2023at SACSAC 128 − 123
Nov 10, 2023at SACSAC 105 − 98
Feb 28, 2023at OKCSAC 123 − 117

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Nov 16, 2025at SA110 − 123L
Nov 14, 2025at MIN110 − 124L
Nov 12, 2025vs ATL100 − 133L
Nov 11, 2025vs DEN108 − 122L
Nov 9, 2025vs MIN117 − 144L
Nov 7, 2025vs OKC101 − 132L
Nov 5, 2025vs GS121 − 116W
Nov 3, 2025at DEN124 − 130L
Nov 1, 2025at MIL135 − 133W
Oct 29, 2025at CHI113 − 126L

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W6
Nov 17, 2025at NO126 − 109W
Nov 15, 2025at CHA109 − 96W
Nov 12, 2025vs LAL121 − 92W
Nov 11, 2025vs GS126 − 102W
Nov 9, 2025at MEM114 − 100W
Nov 7, 2025at SAC132 − 101W
Nov 5, 2025at POR119 − 121L
Nov 4, 2025at LAC126 − 107W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO137 − 106W
Oct 30, 2025vs WSH127 − 108W