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Heat at Mavericks

NBA · Wednesday, Dec 3 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final MIA 108 – DAL 118
← NBA / Dec 3, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA33212628108
DAL28362925118
Team box
MIA·DAL
40-101
field goals
46-91
11-37
3-pointers
16-32
17-18
free throws
10-12
41
rebounds
50
29
assists
31
11
turnovers
15
56
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kel'el WareMIA2522102
Cooper FlaggDAL312262
Bam AdebayoMIA282171
Tyler HerroMIA332040
Naji MarshallDAL361854
Anthony DavisDAL2817174

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +17
MIA +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 17 · MIA 8lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 53%, DAL 47% · Updated Dec 3, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 1.5
Expected score
MIA 114.3 – 112.8 DAL
Expected total
227.2
HeatThe matchupMavericks
−114Our fair odds+114
114.3Expected points112.8
+0.15Power rating−0.23
124.3Points / game111.1
118.4Allowed / game116.1
48.3FG%44.9
37.73P%33.0
46.2Rebounds / game44.7
14−7Season record7−15
7−3Last 104−6
Norman Powell · Terry RozierOutDante Exum · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · DAL chance
Our model fair53.3%46.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat−11453%————
DALDallas Mavericks+11447%————
SpreadMIA by 1.5
MIAMiami Heat−1.5our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.2
Over227.2our total————
Under227.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 1.5 expected
Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%
← MIA wins byDAL wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more44%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more30%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.2 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FAnthony Davisstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·DAL
Dec 1, 2025 vs LAC
last game
Dec 1, 2025 at DEN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 3, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIANorman Powell · left ankle; sprainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAPelle Larsson · right toe; sprainQuestionable
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; injury managementOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; injury managementOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; injury managementQuestionable
DALP.J. Washington · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
MIA·DAL
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.23
124.3
points / game
111.1
118.4
points allowed / game
116.1
14−7
season record
7−15
10−2
home record
4−9
4−5
away record
3−6
W1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
4−6
48.3
FG%
44.9
37.7
3P%
33.0
46.2
rebounds / game
44.7
30.3
assists / game
24.5
14.5
turnovers / game
15.9
56.8
points in paint / game
48.5

Rating Trend

MIA · DAL · 36 days
Miami HeatDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DAL 5−4
Nov 24, 2025at MIAMIA 106 − 102
Feb 13, 2025at DALDAL 118 − 113
Nov 24, 2024at MIAMIA 123 − 118
Apr 10, 2024at MIADAL 111 − 92
Mar 7, 2024at DALDAL 114 − 108
Apr 1, 2023at MIAMIA 129 − 122
Jan 20, 2023at DALDAL 115 − 90
Feb 15, 2022at MIADAL 107 − 99
Nov 2, 2021at DALMIA 125 − 110

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Dec 1, 2025vs LAC140 − 123W
Nov 29, 2025vs DET135 − 138L
Nov 26, 2025vs MIL106 − 103W
Nov 24, 2025vs DAL106 − 102W
Nov 23, 2025at PHI127 − 117W
Nov 21, 2025at CHI143 − 107W
Nov 19, 2025vs GS110 − 96W
Nov 17, 2025vs NY115 − 113W
Nov 14, 2025at NY132 − 140L
Nov 12, 2025vs CLE116 − 130L

DAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Dec 1, 2025at DEN131 − 121W
Nov 29, 2025at LAC114 − 110W
Nov 28, 2025at LAL119 − 129L
Nov 24, 2025at MIA102 − 106L
Nov 22, 2025vs MEM96 − 102L
Nov 21, 2025vs NO118 − 115W
Nov 19, 2025vs NY111 − 113L
Nov 17, 2025at MIN96 − 120L
Nov 16, 2025vs POR138 − 133W
Nov 14, 2025vs LAC127 − 133L