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Mavericks at Nuggets

NBA · Monday, Dec 1 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final DAL 131 – DEN 121
← NBA / Dec 1, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL27423329131
DEN41273617121
Team box
DAL·DEN
53-95
field goals
47-99
16-31
3-pointers
12-37
9-14
free throws
15-18
43
rebounds
47
35
assists
37
8
turnovers
8
54
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony DavisDAL3232134
Nikola JokicDEN37292013
Ryan NembhardDAL3528310
Spencer JonesDEN392850
Cooper FlaggDAL332482
Peyton WatsonDEN351553

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +17
DAL +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 17 · DAL 12lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 23%, DEN 77% · Updated Dec 1, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 9.6
Expected score
DEN 120.8 – 111.2 DAL
Expected total
231.9
MavericksThe matchupNuggets
+327Our fair odds−327
111.2Expected points120.8
−0.29Power rating+0.66
110.2Points / game124.8
115.9Allowed / game115.1
44.4FG%51.2
32.13P%38.9
44.8Rebounds / game45.7
6−15Season record14−5
3−7Last 107−3
Daniel Gafford · Dante Exum
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie IrvingOutAaron Gordon · Christian Braun
DaRon Holmes II · Julian Strawther
Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · DEN chance
Our model fair23.4%76.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+32723%————
DENDenver Nuggets−32777%————
SpreadDEN by 9.6
DALDallas Mavericks+9.6our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−9.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.9
Over231.9our total————
Under231.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 9.6 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 52 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 51 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 50 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 50 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 51 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 52 points: <1%
← DAL wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more65%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more50%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more35%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.9 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.531%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FAnthony Davisstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·DEN
Nov 29, 2025 at LAC
last game
Nov 29, 2025 at PHX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 1, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; injury managementOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; injury managementOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; injury managementOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALBrandon Williams · left adductor; strainQuestionable
DALP.J. Washington · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
DALAnthony Davis · left calf; injury managementProbable
DALKlay Thompson · illness; illnessProbable
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENJulian Strawther · lower back; injury managementOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
DENBruce Brown · illness; illnessQuestionable
DENNikola Jokic · left wrist; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
DAL·DEN
−0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.66
110.2
points / game
124.8
115.9
points allowed / game
115.1
6−15
season record
14−5
4−9
home record
6−3
2−6
away record
8−2
W1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
7−3
44.4
FG%
51.2
32.1
3P%
38.9
44.8
rebounds / game
45.7
24.0
assists / game
29.5
16.2
turnovers / game
14.2
48.3
points in paint / game
52.8

Rating Trend

DAL · DEN · 34 days
Dallas MavericksDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 7−3
Jan 14, 2025at DALDEN 118 − 99
Jan 12, 2025at DALDEN 112 − 101
Nov 22, 2024at DENDAL 123 − 120
Nov 10, 2024at DENDEN 122 − 120
Mar 17, 2024at DALDAL 107 − 105
Dec 18, 2023at DENDEN 130 − 104
Nov 3, 2023at DENDEN 125 − 114
Feb 15, 2023at DENDEN 118 − 109
Dec 6, 2022at DENDAL 116 − 115
Nov 20, 2022at DALDEN 98 − 97

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Nov 29, 2025at LAC114 − 110W
Nov 28, 2025at LAL119 − 129L
Nov 24, 2025at MIA102 − 106L
Nov 22, 2025vs MEM96 − 102L
Nov 21, 2025vs NO118 − 115W
Nov 19, 2025vs NY111 − 113L
Nov 17, 2025at MIN96 − 120L
Nov 16, 2025vs POR138 − 133W
Nov 14, 2025vs LAC127 − 133L
Nov 12, 2025vs PHX114 − 123L

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Nov 29, 2025at PHX130 − 112W
Nov 28, 2025vs SA136 − 139L
Nov 24, 2025at MEM125 − 115W
Nov 22, 2025vs SAC123 − 128L
Nov 21, 2025at HOU112 − 109W
Nov 19, 2025at NO125 − 118W
Nov 17, 2025vs CHI127 − 130L
Nov 15, 2025at MIN123 − 112W
Nov 12, 2025at LAC130 − 116W
Nov 11, 2025at SAC122 − 108W