bayesRatings

Nuggets at Suns

NBA · Saturday, Nov 29 · 8:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final DEN 130 – PHX 112
← NBA / Nov 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN30333334130
PHX25352527112
Team box
DEN·PHX
44-76
field goals
39-88
22-38
3-pointers
14-42
20-21
free throws
20-26
40
rebounds
32
36
assists
23
17
turnovers
7
42
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Dillon BrooksPHX282732
Nikola JokicDEN3126910
Devin BookerPHX352447
Jamal MurrayDEN372434
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN272330
Spencer JonesDEN271691

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +21
DEN +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 8 · DEN 21lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 60%, PHX 40% · Updated Nov 29, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 2.9
Expected score
DEN 118.6 – 115.7 PHX
Expected total
234.3
NuggetsThe matchupSuns
−149Our fair odds+149
118.6Expected points115.7
+0.66Power rating+0.01
124.5Points / game116.9
115.2Allowed / game113.2
50.8FG%46.9
37.83P%37.8
46.0Rebounds / game44.0
13−5Season record12−8
7−3Last 107−3
Aaron Gordon · Christian Braun
DaRon Holmes II · Julian Strawther
Tamar BatesOutIsaiah Livers · Jalen Green

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · PHX chance
Our model fair59.8%40.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−14960%————
PHXPhoenix Suns+14940%————
SpreadDEN by 2.9
DENDenver Nuggets−2.9our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns+2.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.3
Over234.3our total————
Under234.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 2.9 expected
Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%
← DEN wins byPHX wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more48%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more33%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.3 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.549%
Total over 244.530%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Phoenix Suns
GGrayson Allenstarted
GDevin Bookerstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
FOso Ighodarostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·PHX
Nov 28, 2025 vs SA
last game
Nov 28, 2025 at OKC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 29, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENJulian Strawther · lower back; injuryOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
DENBruce Brown · right knee; sprainQuestionable
DENNikola Jokic · left wrist; sprainQuestionable
Phoenix Suns
PHXIsaiah Livers · right hip; sorenessOut
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXGrayson Allen · management right quadriceps; contusionQuestionable
PHXJordan Goodwin · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
PHXMark Williams · right calf; sorenessQuestionable
PHXRyan Dunn · right wrist; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
DEN·PHX
+0.66
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
124.5
points / game
116.9
115.2
points allowed / game
113.2
13−5
season record
12−8
6−3
home record
8−3
7−2
away record
4−5
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
7−3
50.8
FG%
46.9
37.8
3P%
37.8
46.0
rebounds / game
44.0
29.1
assists / game
25.6
14.1
turnovers / game
16.8
53.4
points in paint / game
45.0

Rating Trend

DEN · PHX · 32 days
Denver NuggetsPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 3−7
Oct 25, 2025at DENDEN 133 − 111
Mar 7, 2025at DENDEN 149 − 141
Feb 8, 2025at PHXDEN 122 − 105
Dec 25, 2024at PHXPHX 110 − 100
Dec 23, 2024at DENDEN 117 − 90
Mar 27, 2024at DENPHX 104 − 97
Mar 5, 2024at DENPHX 117 − 107
Dec 1, 2023at PHXDEN 119 − 111
May 11, 2023at PHXDEN 125 − 100post
May 9, 2023at DENDEN 118 − 102post

DEN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Nov 28, 2025vs SA136 − 139L
Nov 24, 2025at MEM125 − 115W
Nov 22, 2025vs SAC123 − 128L
Nov 21, 2025at HOU112 − 109W
Nov 19, 2025at NO125 − 118W
Nov 17, 2025vs CHI127 − 130L
Nov 15, 2025at MIN123 − 112W
Nov 12, 2025at LAC130 − 116W
Nov 11, 2025at SAC122 − 108W
Nov 8, 2025vs IND117 − 100W

PHX · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Nov 28, 2025at OKC119 − 123L
Nov 26, 2025at SAC112 − 100W
Nov 24, 2025vs HOU92 − 114L
Nov 23, 2025vs SA111 − 102W
Nov 21, 2025vs MIN114 − 113W
Nov 18, 2025at POR127 − 110W
Nov 16, 2025vs ATL122 − 124L
Nov 13, 2025vs IND133 − 98W
Nov 12, 2025at DAL123 − 114W
Nov 10, 2025vs NO121 − 98W