bayesRatings

Spurs at Suns

NBA · Sunday, Nov 23 · 7:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final SA 102 – PHX 111
← NBA / Nov 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA30262422102
PHX25243725111
Team box
SA·PHX
32-77
field goals
43-97
10-34
3-pointers
14-38
28-34
free throws
11-16
50
rebounds
43
17
assists
27
19
turnovers
6
38
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
De'Aaron FoxSA332653
Dillon BrooksPHX352532
Devin BookerPHX382457
Devin VassellSA331742
Jordan GoodwinPHX3315103
Collin GillespiePHX301536

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +13
SA +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 13 · SA 11lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 41%, PHX 59% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
PHX by 2.5
Expected score
PHX 118.0 – 115.5 SA
Expected total
233.5
SpursThe matchupSuns
+142Our fair odds−142
115.5Expected points118.0
−0.12Power rating−0.03
119.3Points / game119.0
112.3Allowed / game114.0
50.0FG%47.6
37.03P%38.6
45.1Rebounds / game43.7
11−4Season record10−6
6−4Last 108−2
Dylan Harper · Jordan McLaughlin
Stephon Castle · Victor WembanyamaOutGrayson Allen · Jalen Green

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · PHX chance
Our model fair41.4%58.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+14241%————
PHXPhoenix Suns−14259%————
SpreadPHX by 2.5
SASan Antonio Spurs+2.5our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns−2.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.5
Over233.5our total————
Under233.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 2.5 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%
← SA wins byPHX wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more47%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more32%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.5 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
CLuke Kornetstarted
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GJordan Goodwinstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·PHX
Nov 20, 2025 vs ATL
last game
Nov 21, 2025 vs MIN
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 23, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADylan Harper · left calf; strainOut
SAJordan McLaughlin · left hamstring; strainOut
SAStephon Castle · left hip flexor; strainOut
SAVictor Wembanyama · left calf; strainOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayQuestionable
SARiley Minix · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
Phoenix Suns
PHXGrayson Allen · right quadriceps; contusionOut
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXRasheer Fleming · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
PHXRyan Dunn · right wrist; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
SA·PHX
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
119.3
points / game
119.0
112.3
points allowed / game
114.0
11−4
season record
10−6
8−2
home record
7−2
3−2
away record
3−4
W3
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
8−2
50.0
FG%
47.6
37.0
3P%
38.6
45.1
rebounds / game
43.7
27.4
assists / game
26.8
15.9
turnovers / game
17.0
51.9
points in paint / game
45.4

Rating Trend

SA · PHX · 27 days
San Antonio SpursPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 6−4
Nov 2, 2025at PHXPHX 130 − 118
Apr 11, 2025at PHXPHX 117 − 98
Feb 20, 2025at SASA 120 − 109
Dec 3, 2024at PHXPHX 104 − 93
Mar 25, 2024at SASA 104 − 102
Mar 23, 2024at SAPHX 131 − 106
Nov 2, 2023at PHXSA 132 − 121
Oct 31, 2023at PHXSA 115 − 114
Apr 4, 2023at PHXPHX 115 − 94
Jan 28, 2023at SAPHX 128 − 118

SA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Nov 20, 2025vs ATL135 − 126W
Nov 18, 2025vs MEM111 − 101W
Nov 16, 2025vs SAC123 − 110W
Nov 14, 2025vs GS108 − 109L
Nov 12, 2025vs GS120 − 125L
Nov 10, 2025at CHI121 − 117W
Nov 8, 2025vs NO126 − 119W
Nov 7, 2025vs HOU121 − 110W
Nov 5, 2025at LAL116 − 118L
Nov 2, 2025at PHX118 − 130L

PHX · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Nov 21, 2025vs MIN114 − 113W
Nov 18, 2025at POR127 − 110W
Nov 16, 2025vs ATL122 − 124L
Nov 13, 2025vs IND133 − 98W
Nov 12, 2025at DAL123 − 114W
Nov 10, 2025vs NO121 − 98W
Nov 8, 2025at LAC114 − 103W
Nov 6, 2025vs LAC115 − 102W
Nov 4, 2025at GS107 − 118L
Nov 2, 2025vs SA130 − 118W