bayesRatings

Timberwolves at Suns

NBA · Friday, Nov 21 · 8:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final MIN 113 – PHX 114
← NBA / Nov 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN24253331113
PHX32301933114
Team box
MIN·PHX
39-86
field goals
39-81
12-37
3-pointers
14-31
23-33
free throws
22-29
37
rebounds
45
18
assists
25
22
turnovers
28
52
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony EdwardsMIN404154
Dillon BrooksPHX372251
Collin GillespiePHX342074
Julius RandleMIN342052
Mark WilliamsPHX261980
Devin BookerPHX3516310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +18
MIN +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 18 · MIN 9lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 60%, PHX 40% · Updated Nov 21, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 2.9
Expected score
MIN 115.2 – 112.3 PHX
Expected total
227.5
TimberwolvesThe matchupSuns
−148Our fair odds+148
115.2Expected points112.3
+0.63Power rating−0.03
120.6Points / game119.3
114.1Allowed / game114.1
49.4FG%47.5
38.13P%38.1
44.0Rebounds / game43.6
10−5Season record9−6
8−2Last 108−2
Enrique Freeman · Rocco Zikarsky
Terrence Shannon Jr.Out (3 each)Grayson Allen · Jalen Green
Rasheer Fleming

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · PHX chance
Our model fair59.7%40.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−14860%————
PHXPhoenix Suns+14840%————
SpreadMIN by 2.9
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−2.9our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns+2.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.5
Over227.5our total————
Under227.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 2.9 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%
← MIN wins byPHX wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more48%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more33%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.5 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
FRyan Dunnstarted
CMark Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·PHX
Nov 19, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Nov 18, 2025 at POR
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 21, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINTerrence Shannon Jr. · left fifth metatarsal; bone bruiseOut
MINJaden McDaniels · left wrist; sprainQuestionable
MINJoe Ingles · left groin; sorenessQuestionable
Phoenix Suns
PHXGrayson Allen · right quadriceps; contusionOut
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXRasheer Fleming · left ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
MIN·PHX
+0.63
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
120.6
points / game
119.3
114.1
points allowed / game
114.1
10−5
season record
9−6
5−3
home record
6−2
5−2
away record
3−4
W2
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
8−2
49.4
FG%
47.5
38.1
3P%
38.1
44.0
rebounds / game
43.6
26.5
assists / game
26.9
14.9
turnovers / game
16.3
52.9
points in paint / game
45.2

Rating Trend

MIN · PHX · 25 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 2−8
Mar 28, 2025at MINMIN 124 − 109
Mar 2, 2025at PHXMIN 116 − 98
Jan 29, 2025at PHXMIN 121 − 113
Nov 17, 2024at MINMIN 120 − 117
Apr 28, 2024at PHXMIN 122 − 116post
Apr 26, 2024at PHXMIN 126 − 109post
Apr 23, 2024at MINMIN 105 − 93post
Apr 20, 2024at MINMIN 120 − 95post
Apr 14, 2024at MINPHX 125 − 106
Apr 5, 2024at PHXPHX 97 − 87

MIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Nov 19, 2025vs WSH120 − 109W
Nov 17, 2025vs DAL120 − 96W
Nov 15, 2025vs DEN112 − 123L
Nov 14, 2025vs SAC124 − 110W
Nov 10, 2025at UTAH120 − 113W
Nov 9, 2025at SAC144 − 117W
Nov 7, 2025vs UTAH137 − 97W
Nov 5, 2025at NY114 − 137L
Nov 3, 2025at BKN125 − 109W
Nov 1, 2025at CHA122 − 105W

PHX · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Nov 18, 2025at POR127 − 110W
Nov 16, 2025vs ATL122 − 124L
Nov 13, 2025vs IND133 − 98W
Nov 12, 2025at DAL123 − 114W
Nov 10, 2025vs NO121 − 98W
Nov 8, 2025at LAC114 − 103W
Nov 6, 2025vs LAC115 − 102W
Nov 4, 2025at GS107 − 118L
Nov 2, 2025vs SA130 − 118W
Oct 31, 2025vs UTAH118 − 96W