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Suns at Thunder

NBA · Friday, Nov 28 · 8:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final PHX 119 – OKC 123
← NBA / Nov 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX25273037119
OKC25313829123
Team box
PHX·OKC
42-92
field goals
42-87
15-44
3-pointers
15-32
20-24
free throws
24-28
51
rebounds
37
20
assists
27
20
turnovers
10
48
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC363738
Collin GillespiePHX332434
Chet HolmgrenOKC322381
Devin BookerPHX392186
Dillon BrooksPHX391932
Cason WallaceOKC321443

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +15
PHX +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 15 · PHX 2lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 16%, OKC 84% · Updated Nov 28, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 15.5
Expected score
OKC 121.8 – 106.3 PHX
Expected total
228.2
SunsThe matchupThunder
+539Our fair odds−539
106.3Expected points121.8
+0.01Power rating+1.48
116.8Points / game122.1
112.6Allowed / game105.6
46.9FG%48.9
38.03P%36.1
43.6Rebounds / game45.2
12−7Season record18−1
8−2Last 1010−0
Jalen Green · Ryan DunnOutAaron Wiggins · Isaiah Hartenstein
Nikola Topic · Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · OKC chance
Our model fair15.6%84.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+53916%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−53984%————
SpreadOKC by 15.5
PHXPhoenix Suns+15.5our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−15.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.2
Over228.2our total————
Under228.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 15.5 expected
Phoenix Suns by 53 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 52 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 51 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 50 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 49 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 48 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← PHX wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more79%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more67%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more52%
Within 5 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.2 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·OKC
Nov 26, 2025 at SAC
last game
Nov 26, 2025 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 28, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXRyan Dunn · right wrist; sprainOut
PHXGrayson Allen · right quadriceps; contusionDoubtful
PHXIsaiah Livers · right hip; sorenessQuestionable
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAaron Wiggins · left adductor; strainOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right ankle; sorenessOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
PHX·OKC
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+1.48
116.8
points / game
122.1
112.6
points allowed / game
105.6
12−7
season record
18−1
8−3
home record
9−0
4−4
away record
9−1
W1
streak
W10
8−2
last 10
10−0
46.9
FG%
48.9
38.0
3P%
36.1
43.6
rebounds / game
45.2
25.9
assists / game
26.2
16.6
turnovers / game
12.9
44.8
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

PHX · OKC · 31 days
Phoenix SunsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 7−3
Apr 9, 2025at PHXOKC 125 − 112
Feb 5, 2025at OKCOKC 140 − 109
Nov 15, 2024at OKCOKC 99 − 83
Mar 29, 2024at OKCOKC 128 − 103
Mar 3, 2024at PHXOKC 118 − 110
Nov 12, 2023at PHXOKC 111 − 99
Apr 2, 2023at OKCPHX 128 − 118
Mar 19, 2023at OKCOKC 124 − 120
Mar 8, 2023at PHXPHX 132 − 101
Feb 24, 2023at PHXPHX 124 − 115

PHX · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Nov 26, 2025at SAC112 − 100W
Nov 24, 2025vs HOU92 − 114L
Nov 23, 2025vs SA111 − 102W
Nov 21, 2025vs MIN114 − 113W
Nov 18, 2025at POR127 − 110W
Nov 16, 2025vs ATL122 − 124L
Nov 13, 2025vs IND133 − 98W
Nov 12, 2025at DAL123 − 114W
Nov 10, 2025vs NO121 − 98W
Nov 8, 2025at LAC114 − 103W

OKC · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Nov 26, 2025vs MIN113 − 105W
Nov 23, 2025vs POR122 − 95W
Nov 21, 2025at UTAH144 − 112W
Nov 19, 2025vs SAC113 − 99W
Nov 17, 2025at NO126 − 109W
Nov 15, 2025at CHA109 − 96W
Nov 12, 2025vs LAL121 − 92W
Nov 11, 2025vs GS126 − 102W
Nov 9, 2025at MEM114 − 100W
Nov 7, 2025at SAC132 − 101W