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Timberwolves at Thunder

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 26 · 6:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final MIN 105 – OKC 113
← NBA / Nov 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN17223234105
OKC24252935113
Team box
MIN·OKC
33-80
field goals
38-80
17-37
3-pointers
7-26
22-37
free throws
30-38
44
rebounds
39
25
assists
19
16
turnovers
9
28
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC374066
Anthony EdwardsMIN403185
Terrence Shannon Jr.MIN171821
Isaiah HartensteinOKC281572
Ajay MitchellOKC241323
Chet HolmgrenOKC291292

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +12
MIN +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 12 · MIN 5lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 24%, OKC 76% · Updated Nov 26, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 11.3
Expected score
OKC 117.2 – 105.9 MIN
Expected total
223.1
TimberwolvesThe matchupThunder
+313Our fair odds−313
105.9Expected points117.2
+0.56Power rating+1.48
119.6Points / game122.6
114.2Allowed / game105.7
48.6FG%49.0
37.43P%36.6
44.2Rebounds / game45.5
10−7Season record17−1
6−4Last 109−1
Rocco ZikarskyOutAaron Wiggins · Branden Carlson
Jalen Williams · Nikola Topic
Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · OKC chance
Our model fair24.2%75.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+31324%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−31376%————
SpreadOKC by 11.3
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+11.3our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−11.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.1
Over223.1our total————
Under223.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 11.3 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 53 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 52 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 51 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 50 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← MIN wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more69%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more55%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more40%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.1 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.568%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.529%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·OKC
Nov 24, 2025 at SAC
last game
Nov 23, 2025 vs POR
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 26, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAaron Wiggins · left adductor; strainOut
OKCBranden Carlson · g league - two-wayOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · n/a; illnessQuestionable
OKCBrooks Barnhizer · g league - two-wayProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
MIN·OKC
+0.56
rating (0 = average)
+1.48
119.6
points / game
122.6
114.2
points allowed / game
105.7
10−7
season record
17−1
5−3
home record
8−0
5−4
away record
9−1
L2
streak
W9
6−4
last 10
9−1
48.6
FG%
49.0
37.4
3P%
36.6
44.2
rebounds / game
45.5
25.7
assists / game
26.6
15.4
turnovers / game
13.1
52.6
points in paint / game
52.1

Rating Trend

MIN · OKC · 30 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 6−4
May 28, 2025at OKCOKC 124 − 94post
May 26, 2025at MINOKC 128 − 126post
May 24, 2025at MINMIN 143 − 101post
May 22, 2025at OKCOKC 118 − 103post
May 20, 2025at OKCOKC 114 − 88post
Feb 24, 2025at OKCMIN 131 − 128
Feb 23, 2025at MINOKC 130 − 123
Feb 13, 2025at MINMIN 116 − 101
Dec 31, 2024at OKCOKC 113 − 105
Jan 29, 2024at OKCMIN 107 − 101

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Nov 24, 2025at SAC112 − 117L
Nov 21, 2025at PHX113 − 114L
Nov 19, 2025vs WSH120 − 109W
Nov 17, 2025vs DAL120 − 96W
Nov 15, 2025vs DEN112 − 123L
Nov 14, 2025vs SAC124 − 110W
Nov 10, 2025at UTAH120 − 113W
Nov 9, 2025at SAC144 − 117W
Nov 7, 2025vs UTAH137 − 97W
Nov 5, 2025at NY114 − 137L

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Nov 23, 2025vs POR122 − 95W
Nov 21, 2025at UTAH144 − 112W
Nov 19, 2025vs SAC113 − 99W
Nov 17, 2025at NO126 − 109W
Nov 15, 2025at CHA109 − 96W
Nov 12, 2025vs LAL121 − 92W
Nov 11, 2025vs GS126 − 102W
Nov 9, 2025at MEM114 − 100W
Nov 7, 2025at SAC132 − 101W
Nov 5, 2025at POR119 − 121L