bayesRatings

Nuggets at Grizzlies

NBA · Monday, Nov 24 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final DEN 125 – MEM 115
← NBA / Nov 24, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN27353132125
MEM23313130115
Team box
DEN·MEM
46-91
field goals
43-93
22-43
3-pointers
16-47
11-14
free throws
13-15
46
rebounds
40
32
assists
33
14
turnovers
11
46
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN372938
Peyton WatsonDEN332753
Jock LandaleMEM3126102
Jaylen WellsMEM332253
Cameron JohnsonDEN371861
Cam SpencerMEM291824

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +17
DEN +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 3 · DEN 17lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 62%, MEM 38% · Updated Nov 24, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 4.1
Expected score
DEN 120.7 – 116.6 MEM
Expected total
237.3
NuggetsThe matchupGrizzlies
−160Our fair odds+160
120.7Expected points116.6
+0.67Power rating−0.08
123.8Points / game112.1
113.8Allowed / game116.5
50.7FG%43.1
36.83P%32.2
46.1Rebounds / game45.9
12−4Season record6−11
8−2Last 103−7
Aaron Gordon · Christian Braun
Julian StrawtherOutBrandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Javon Small · Scotty Pippen Jr.
Ty Jerome

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · MEM chance
Our model fair61.6%38.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−16062%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+16038%————
SpreadDEN by 4.1
DENDenver Nuggets−4.1our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+4.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 237.3
Over237.3our total————
Under237.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 4.1 expected
Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%
← DEN wins byMEM wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more51%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more36%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

237.3 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 227.568%
Total over 237.548%
Total over 247.530%
Total from 228 to 24738%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GVince Williams Jr.started
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FCedric Cowardstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CZach Edeystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·MEM
Nov 22, 2025 vs SAC
last game
Nov 22, 2025 at DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 24, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENJulian Strawther · lower back; injury managementOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMJa Morant · right calf; strainOut
MEMJavon Small · left toe; turf toeOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMJaren Jackson Jr. · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
DEN·MEM
+0.67
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
123.8
points / game
112.1
113.8
points allowed / game
116.5
12−4
season record
6−11
6−2
home record
4−5
6−2
away record
2−6
L1
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
3−7
50.7
FG%
43.1
36.8
3P%
32.2
46.1
rebounds / game
45.9
29.1
assists / game
28.4
13.9
turnovers / game
14.3
54.5
points in paint / game
46.5

Rating Trend

DEN · MEM · 28 days
Denver NuggetsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 2−8
Apr 11, 2025at DENDEN 117 − 109
Nov 19, 2024at MEMDEN 122 − 110
Nov 17, 2024at MEMMEM 105 − 90
Apr 14, 2024at MEMDEN 126 − 111
Mar 25, 2024at DENDEN 128 − 103
Dec 28, 2023at DENDEN 142 − 105
Oct 27, 2023at MEMDEN 108 − 104
Mar 3, 2023at DENDEN 113 − 97
Feb 25, 2023at MEMMEM 112 − 94
Dec 20, 2022at DENDEN 105 − 91

DEN · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Nov 22, 2025vs SAC123 − 128L
Nov 21, 2025at HOU112 − 109W
Nov 19, 2025at NO125 − 118W
Nov 17, 2025vs CHI127 − 130L
Nov 15, 2025at MIN123 − 112W
Nov 12, 2025at LAC130 − 116W
Nov 11, 2025at SAC122 − 108W
Nov 8, 2025vs IND117 − 100W
Nov 7, 2025vs GS129 − 104W
Nov 5, 2025vs MIA122 − 112W

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Nov 22, 2025at DAL102 − 96W
Nov 20, 2025vs SAC137 − 96W
Nov 18, 2025at SA101 − 111L
Nov 15, 2025at CLE100 − 108L
Nov 12, 2025at BOS95 − 131L
Nov 11, 2025at NY120 − 133L
Nov 9, 2025vs OKC100 − 114L
Nov 7, 2025vs DAL118 − 104W
Nov 5, 2025vs HOU109 − 124L
Nov 3, 2025vs DET106 − 114L