bayesRatings

Spurs at Nuggets

NBA · Friday, Nov 28 · 8:30 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final SA 139 – DEN 136
← NBA / Nov 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA41184436139
DEN33413032136
Team box
SA·DEN
46-94
field goals
48-91
17-42
3-pointers
16-39
30-32
free throws
24-30
35
rebounds
44
30
assists
27
9
turnovers
17
48
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN363747
Devin VassellSA313532
Cameron JohnsonDEN382861
Julian ChampagnieSA3625102
Nikola JokicDEN3621910
De'Aaron FoxSA3415112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +18
SA +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 18 · SA 8lead changes: 20

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 27%, DEN 73% · Updated Nov 28, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 7.9
Expected score
DEN 121.6 – 113.7 SA
Expected total
235.3
SpursThe matchupNuggets
+267Our fair odds−267
113.7Expected points121.6
−0.08Power rating+0.66
118.1Points / game123.8
111.6Allowed / game113.8
49.0FG%50.7
36.33P%37.6
46.1Rebounds / game46.1
12−5Season record13−4
7−3Last 108−2
Harrison Ingram · Jordan McLaughlin
Riley Minix · Stephon Castle
Victor WembanyamaOut (5 each)Aaron Gordon · Christian Braun
DaRon Holmes II · Julian Strawther
Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · DEN chance
Our model fair27.3%72.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+26727%————
DENDenver Nuggets−26773%————
SpreadDEN by 7.9
SASan Antonio Spurs+7.9our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−7.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.3
Over235.3our total————
Under235.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 7.9 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 50 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 50 points: <1%
← SA wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more61%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more46%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

235.3 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.568%
Total over 235.548%
Total over 245.530%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
CLuke Kornetstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GPeyton Watsonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
FSpencer Jonesstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·DEN
Nov 26, 2025 at POR
last game
Nov 24, 2025 at MEM
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 28, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAJordan McLaughlin · left hamstring; strainOut
SARiley Minix · g league - two-wayOut
SAStephon Castle · left hip flexor; strainOut
SAVictor Wembanyama · left calf; strainOut
Denver Nuggets
DENAaron Gordon · right hamstring; strainOut
DENChristian Braun · left ankle; sprainOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENJulian Strawther · lower back; injury managementOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
SA·DEN
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.66
118.1
points / game
123.8
111.6
points allowed / game
113.8
12−5
season record
13−4
8−2
home record
6−2
4−3
away record
7−2
W1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
8−2
49.0
FG%
50.7
36.3
3P%
37.6
46.1
rebounds / game
46.1
26.2
assists / game
29.2
15.6
turnovers / game
13.9
50.8
points in paint / game
54.0

Rating Trend

SA · DEN · 31 days
San Antonio SpursDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 6−4
Apr 2, 2025at DENSA 113 − 106
Jan 4, 2025at SADEN 122 − 111
Jan 3, 2025at DENSA 113 − 110
Apr 12, 2024at SASA 121 − 120
Apr 2, 2024at DENDEN 110 − 105
Mar 15, 2024at SADEN 117 − 106
Nov 26, 2023at DENDEN 132 − 120
Mar 10, 2023at SASA 128 − 120
Nov 7, 2022at SADEN 115 − 109
Nov 5, 2022at DENDEN 126 − 101

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Nov 26, 2025at POR115 − 102W
Nov 23, 2025at PHX102 − 111L
Nov 20, 2025vs ATL135 − 126W
Nov 18, 2025vs MEM111 − 101W
Nov 16, 2025vs SAC123 − 110W
Nov 14, 2025vs GS108 − 109L
Nov 12, 2025vs GS120 − 125L
Nov 10, 2025at CHI121 − 117W
Nov 8, 2025vs NO126 − 119W
Nov 7, 2025vs HOU121 − 110W

DEN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Nov 24, 2025at MEM125 − 115W
Nov 22, 2025vs SAC123 − 128L
Nov 21, 2025at HOU112 − 109W
Nov 19, 2025at NO125 − 118W
Nov 17, 2025vs CHI127 − 130L
Nov 15, 2025at MIN123 − 112W
Nov 12, 2025at LAC130 − 116W
Nov 11, 2025at SAC122 − 108W
Nov 8, 2025vs IND117 − 100W
Nov 7, 2025vs GS129 − 104W