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Pistons at Heat

NBA · Saturday, Nov 29 · 7:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final DET 138 – MIA 135
← NBA / Nov 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET36353730138
MIA23363244135
Team box
DET·MIA
55-93
field goals
44-88
11-26
3-pointers
14-29
17-23
free throws
33-39
43
rebounds
38
29
assists
27
21
turnovers
18
76
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Andrew WigginsMIA373164
Cade CunninghamDET382948
Norman PowellMIA332823
Tobias HarrisDET312642
Tyler HerroMIA322442
Duncan RobinsonDET321855

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +22
DET +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 2 · DET 22lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 47%, MIA 53% · Updated Nov 29, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 1.5
Expected score
MIA 114.5 – 113.0 DET
Expected total
227.6
PistonsThe matchupHeat
+111Our fair odds−111
113.0Expected points114.5
+0.27Power rating+0.13
118.8Points / game122.9
112.8Allowed / game117.2
48.6FG%47.9
35.53P%36.4
46.6Rebounds / game46.4
15−4Season record13−6
8−2Last 108−2
Bobi Klintman · Isaac Jones
Jalen Duren · Marcus Sasser
Tolu SmithOut (5 each)Jahmir Young · Kasparas Jakucionis
Myron Gardner · Terry Rozier
Vladislav Goldin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · MIA chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons+11147%————
MIAMiami Heat−11153%————
SpreadMIA by 1.5
DETDetroit Pistons+1.5our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.6
Over227.6our total————
Under227.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 1.5 expected
Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%
← DET wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more44%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more30%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.6 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.530%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CIsaiah Stewartstarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·MIA
Nov 28, 2025 vs ORL
last game
Nov 26, 2025 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 29, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · left ankle; sprainOut
DETIsaac Jones · contusion g league - on assignmentOut
DETJalen Duren · left lower leg;Out
DETMarcus Sasser · right hip; impingementOut
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETCaris LeVert · right knee; sorenessQuestionable
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · g league - on assignmentOut
MIAMyron Gardner · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIAJaime Jaquez Jr. · right groin; strainQuestionable
MIAAndrew Wiggins · left hip flexor; strainProbable
MIANorman Powell · left groin; strainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
DET·MIA
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
118.8
points / game
122.9
112.8
points allowed / game
117.2
15−4
season record
13−6
8−2
home record
9−1
7−2
away record
4−5
L2
streak
W6
8−2
last 10
8−2
48.6
FG%
47.9
35.5
3P%
36.4
46.6
rebounds / game
46.4
26.3
assists / game
30.3
15.6
turnovers / game
14.4
57.5
points in paint / game
57.5

Rating Trend

DET · MIA · 32 days
Detroit PistonsMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 7−3
Mar 19, 2025at MIADET 116 − 113
Dec 16, 2024at DETDET 125 − 124
Nov 12, 2024at DETDET 123 − 121
Oct 28, 2024at MIAMIA 106 − 98
Mar 17, 2024at DETMIA 104 − 101
Mar 15, 2024at DETMIA 108 − 95
Mar 5, 2024at MIAMIA 118 − 110
Oct 25, 2023at MIAMIA 103 − 102
Apr 4, 2023at DETMIA 118 − 105
Mar 19, 2023at DETMIA 112 − 100

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak L2
Nov 28, 2025vs ORL109 − 112L
Nov 26, 2025at BOS114 − 117L
Nov 24, 2025at IND122 − 117W
Nov 22, 2025at MIL129 − 116W
Nov 18, 2025at ATL120 − 112W
Nov 17, 2025vs IND127 − 112W
Nov 14, 2025vs PHI114 − 105W
Nov 12, 2025vs CHI124 − 113W
Nov 10, 2025vs WSH137 − 135W
Nov 9, 2025at PHI111 − 108W

MIA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Nov 26, 2025vs MIL106 − 103W
Nov 24, 2025vs DAL106 − 102W
Nov 23, 2025at PHI127 − 117W
Nov 21, 2025at CHI143 − 107W
Nov 19, 2025vs GS110 − 96W
Nov 17, 2025vs NY115 − 113W
Nov 14, 2025at NY132 − 140L
Nov 12, 2025vs CLE116 − 130L
Nov 10, 2025vs CLE140 − 138W
Nov 8, 2025vs POR136 − 131W