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Spurs at Magic

NBA · Wednesday, Dec 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final SA 114 – ORL 112
← NBA / Dec 3, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA31272828114
ORL29203033112
Team box
SA·ORL
42-91
field goals
45-99
13-38
3-pointers
9-27
17-24
free throws
13-19
52
rebounds
48
20
assists
27
19
turnovers
10
42
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
De'Aaron FoxSA293155
Franz WagnerORL362546
Jalen SuggsORL272444
Dylan HarperSA221655
Devin VassellSA321561
Desmond BaneORL381436

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +15
SA +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 1 · SA 15lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 39%, ORL 61% · Updated Dec 3, 2025

Expected margin
ORL by 4.6
Expected score
ORL 113.0 – 108.4 SA
Expected total
221.4
SpursThe matchupMagic
+159Our fair odds−159
108.4Expected points113.0
−0.04Power rating+0.19
119.2Points / game119.5
113.8Allowed / game114.3
49.0FG%47.8
36.43P%33.6
44.6Rebounds / game44.9
14−6Season record13−8
6−4Last 108−2
Harrison Ingram · Jordan McLaughlin
Riley Minix · Stephon Castle
Victor WembanyamaOut (5 each)Colin Castleton · Jamal Cain
Moritz Wagner · Orlando Robinson
Paolo Banchero

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · ORL chance
Our model fair38.6%61.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+15939%————
ORLOrlando Magic−15961%————
SpreadORL by 4.6
SASan Antonio Spurs+4.6our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic−4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.4
Over221.4our total————
Under221.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 4.6 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 46 points: <1%
← SA wins byORL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more53%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more37%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.4 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.569%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.530%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
CLuke Kornetstarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FFranz Wagnerstarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·ORL
Dec 2, 2025 vs MEM
last game
Dec 1, 2025 vs CHI
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 3, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAJordan McLaughlin · left hamstring; strainOut
SARiley Minix · g league - two-wayOut
SAStephon Castle · left hip; flexor strainOut
SAVictor Wembanyama · left calf; strainOut
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLJamal Cain · g league - two-wayOut
ORLMoritz Wagner · left knee; injury recoveryOut
ORLOrlando Robinson · g league - two-wayOut
ORLPaolo Banchero · left groin; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 20+ games
SA·ORL
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
119.2
points / game
119.5
113.8
points allowed / game
114.3
14−6
season record
13−8
9−2
home record
8−3
5−4
away record
5−5
W1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
8−2
49.0
FG%
47.8
36.4
3P%
33.6
44.6
rebounds / game
44.9
26.0
assists / game
25.5
14.6
turnovers / game
15.0
50.6
points in paint / game
54.6

Rating Trend

SA · ORL · 36 days
San Antonio SpursOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · ORL 5−3
Apr 1, 2025at SAORL 116 − 105
Feb 8, 2025at ORLORL 112 − 111
Feb 8, 2024at ORLORL 127 − 111
Jan 31, 2024at SAORL 108 − 98
Mar 14, 2023at SASA 132 − 114
Dec 23, 2022at ORLORL 133 − 113
Nov 5, 2021at ORLSA 102 − 89
Oct 20, 2021at SASA 123 − 97

SA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 2, 2025vs MEM126 − 119W
Nov 30, 2025at MIN112 − 125L
Nov 28, 2025at DEN139 − 136W
Nov 26, 2025at POR115 − 102W
Nov 23, 2025at PHX102 − 111L
Nov 20, 2025vs ATL135 − 126W
Nov 18, 2025vs MEM111 − 101W
Nov 16, 2025vs SAC123 − 110W
Nov 14, 2025vs GS108 − 109L
Nov 12, 2025vs GS120 − 125L

ORL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Dec 1, 2025vs CHI125 − 120W
Nov 28, 2025at DET112 − 109W
Nov 25, 2025at PHI144 − 103W
Nov 23, 2025at BOS129 − 138L
Nov 22, 2025vs NY133 − 121W
Nov 20, 2025vs LAC129 − 101W
Nov 18, 2025vs GS121 − 113W
Nov 16, 2025at HOU113 − 117L
Nov 14, 2025vs BKN105 − 98W
Nov 12, 2025at NY124 − 107W