bayesRatings

Spurs at Timberwolves

NBA · Sunday, Nov 30 · 6:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final SA 112 – MIN 125
← NBA / Nov 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA37253119112
MIN32292836125
Team box
SA·MIN
44-84
field goals
49-87
8-33
3-pointers
17-37
16-19
free throws
10-13
33
rebounds
36
17
assists
35
10
turnovers
13
58
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony EdwardsMIN363236
De'Aaron FoxSA322524
Julius RandleMIN3622612
Keldon JohnsonSA262282
Devin VassellSA322213
Donte DiVincenzoMIN291854

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +16
SA +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 16 · SA 10lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 29%, MIN 71% · Updated Nov 30, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 8.2
Expected score
MIN 117.5 – 109.3 SA
Expected total
226.8
SpursThe matchupTimberwolves
+242Our fair odds−242
109.3Expected points117.5
−0.08Power rating+0.56
119.2Points / game118.8
112.9Allowed / game114.2
49.0FG%48.3
36.53P%38.2
45.5Rebounds / game43.8
13−5Season record11−8
7−3Last 106−4
Harrison Ingram · Jordan McLaughlin
Riley Minix · Stephon Castle
Victor WembanyamaOutRocco Zikarsky

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · MIN chance
Our model fair29.3%70.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+24229%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−24271%————
SpreadMIN by 8.2
SASan Antonio Spurs+8.2our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−8.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.8
Over226.8our total————
Under226.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 8.2 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 50 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 49 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 50 points: <1%
← SA wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more62%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more46%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

226.8 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.570%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
CLuke Kornetstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·MIN
Nov 28, 2025 at DEN
last game
Nov 29, 2025 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 30, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAJordan McLaughlin · left hamstring; strainOut
SARiley Minix · g league - two-wayOut
SAStephon Castle · left hip flexor; strainOut
SAVictor Wembanyama · left calf; strainOut
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
SA·MIN
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.56
119.2
points / game
118.8
112.9
points allowed / game
114.2
13−5
season record
11−8
8−2
home record
6−3
5−3
away record
5−5
W2
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
6−4
49.0
FG%
48.3
36.5
3P%
38.2
45.5
rebounds / game
43.8
26.4
assists / game
25.9
15.3
turnovers / game
15.4
50.7
points in paint / game
50.3

Rating Trend

SA · MIN · 33 days
San Antonio SpursMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 7−3
Mar 9, 2025at MINMIN 141 − 124
Dec 29, 2024at MINMIN 112 − 110
Dec 15, 2024at SAMIN 106 − 92
Nov 2, 2024at SASA 113 − 103
Feb 27, 2024at MINMIN 114 − 105
Jan 27, 2024at SASA 113 − 112
Dec 6, 2023at MINMIN 102 − 94
Nov 10, 2023at SAMIN 117 − 110
Apr 8, 2023at SAMIN 151 − 131
Oct 30, 2022at SASA 107 − 98

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Nov 28, 2025at DEN139 − 136W
Nov 26, 2025at POR115 − 102W
Nov 23, 2025at PHX102 − 111L
Nov 20, 2025vs ATL135 − 126W
Nov 18, 2025vs MEM111 − 101W
Nov 16, 2025vs SAC123 − 110W
Nov 14, 2025vs GS108 − 109L
Nov 12, 2025vs GS120 − 125L
Nov 10, 2025at CHI121 − 117W
Nov 8, 2025vs NO126 − 119W

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 29, 2025vs BOS119 − 115W
Nov 26, 2025at OKC105 − 113L
Nov 24, 2025at SAC112 − 117L
Nov 21, 2025at PHX113 − 114L
Nov 19, 2025vs WSH120 − 109W
Nov 17, 2025vs DAL120 − 96W
Nov 15, 2025vs DEN112 − 123L
Nov 14, 2025vs SAC124 − 110W
Nov 10, 2025at UTAH120 − 113W
Nov 9, 2025at SAC144 − 117W