bayesRatings

Celtics at Timberwolves

NBA · Saturday, Nov 29 · 4:00 PM CT · Target Center · Final BOS 115 – MIN 119
← NBA / Nov 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS36332323115
MIN32273525119
Team box
BOS·MIN
45-96
field goals
41-83
16-46
3-pointers
21-48
9-15
free throws
16-20
43
rebounds
37
24
assists
31
11
turnovers
15
50
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS394167
Anthony EdwardsMIN373925
Neemias QuetaBOS2919180
Julius RandleMIN321696
Derrick WhiteBOS391615
Donte DiVincenzoMIN341538

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +12
BOS +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 12 · BOS 12lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 48%, MIN 52% · Updated Nov 29, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 1.9
Expected score
MIN 110.0 – 108.0 BOS
Expected total
218.0
CelticsThe matchupTimberwolves
+107Our fair odds−107
108.0Expected points110.0
+0.75Power rating+0.56
114.8Points / game118.8
110.2Allowed / game114.2
46.1FG%48.2
35.93P%37.8
44.4Rebounds / game44.2
10−8Season record10−8
7−3Last 106−4
Jayson Tatum · Max Shulga
Ron Harper Jr.OutRocco Zikarsky

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · MIN chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics+10748%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−10752%————
SpreadMIN by 1.9
BOSBoston Celtics+1.9our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 218.0
Over218.0our total————
Under218.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 1.9 expected
Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%
← BOS wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more46%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more31%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

218.0 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 208.568%
Total over 218.548%
Total over 228.529%
Total from 209 to 22839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
GJordan Walshstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·MIN
Nov 26, 2025 vs DET
last game
Nov 26, 2025 at OKC
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 28, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSMax Shulga · g league - two-wayOut
BOSRon Harper Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
BOS·MIN
+0.75
rating (0 = average)
+0.56
114.8
points / game
118.8
110.2
points allowed / game
114.2
10−8
season record
10−8
6−4
home record
5−3
4−4
away record
5−5
W2
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
6−4
46.1
FG%
48.2
35.9
3P%
37.8
44.4
rebounds / game
44.2
24.5
assists / game
25.7
11.3
turnovers / game
15.4
41.9
points in paint / game
51.2

Rating Trend

BOS · MIN · 32 days
Boston CelticsMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIN 2−6
Jan 2, 2025at MINBOS 118 − 115
Nov 24, 2024at BOSBOS 107 − 105
Jan 10, 2024at BOSBOS 127 − 120
Nov 6, 2023at MINMIN 114 − 109
Mar 15, 2023at MINBOS 104 − 102
Dec 23, 2022at BOSBOS 121 − 109
Mar 27, 2022at BOSBOS 134 − 112
Dec 27, 2021at MINMIN 108 − 103

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Nov 26, 2025vs DET117 − 114W
Nov 23, 2025vs ORL138 − 129W
Nov 21, 2025vs BKN105 − 113L
Nov 18, 2025at BKN113 − 99W
Nov 16, 2025vs LAC121 − 118W
Nov 12, 2025vs MEM131 − 95W
Nov 11, 2025at PHI100 − 102L
Nov 9, 2025at ORL111 − 107W
Nov 7, 2025at ORL110 − 123L
Nov 5, 2025vs WSH136 − 107W

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Nov 26, 2025at OKC105 − 113L
Nov 24, 2025at SAC112 − 117L
Nov 21, 2025at PHX113 − 114L
Nov 19, 2025vs WSH120 − 109W
Nov 17, 2025vs DAL120 − 96W
Nov 15, 2025vs DEN112 − 123L
Nov 14, 2025vs SAC124 − 110W
Nov 10, 2025at UTAH120 − 113W
Nov 9, 2025at SAC144 − 117W
Nov 7, 2025vs UTAH137 − 97W