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Warriors at Trail Blazers

NBA · Sunday, Dec 14 · 8:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final GS 131 – POR 136
← NBA / Dec 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS31313732131
POR34273540136
Team box
GS·POR
44-87
field goals
45-89
24-47
3-pointers
20-39
19-23
free throws
26-29
36
rebounds
43
34
assists
30
18
turnovers
18
38
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Stephen CurryGS354832
Shaedon SharpePOR333534
Jerami GrantPOR343532
Deni AvdijaPOR332678
Jimmy Butler IIIGS351674
Draymond GreenGS301487

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +11
GS +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 11 · GS 10lead changes: 20

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 58%, POR 42% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 3.4
Expected score
GS 114.2 – 110.8 POR
Expected total
225.1
WarriorsThe matchupTrail Blazers
−141Our fair odds+141
114.2Expected points110.8
+0.33Power rating−0.25
113.7Points / game117.5
112.3Allowed / game121.5
45.0FG%44.3
36.33P%33.0
43.4Rebounds / game45.6
13−13Season record9−16
4−6Last 103−7
Al HorfordOutBlake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Jrue Holiday · Matisse Thybulle
Scoot Henderson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · POR chance
Our model fair58.5%41.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−14158%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+14142%————
SpreadGS by 3.4
GSGolden State Warriors−3.4our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.1
Over225.1our total————
Under225.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 3.4 expected
Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%
← GS wins byPOR wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more49%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more34%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.1 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.568%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.529%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GShaedon Sharpestarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·POR
Dec 12, 2025 vs MIN
last game
Dec 11, 2025 at NO
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 14, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSGary Payton II · general; illnessQuestionable
GSSeth Curry · left gluteal; sorenessQuestionable
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORJrue Holiday · right calf; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · left thumb; ligament tearOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
PORDonovan Clingan · left lower leg; contusionQuestionable
PORHansen Yang · face; contusionQuestionable
PORRobert Williams III · illness; .Questionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
GS·POR
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
113.7
points / game
117.5
112.3
points allowed / game
121.5
13−13
season record
9−16
7−4
home record
3−6
6−9
away record
6−10
L1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
3−7
45.0
FG%
44.3
36.3
3P%
33.0
43.4
rebounds / game
45.6
27.4
assists / game
24.7
15.9
turnovers / game
16.9
41.6
points in paint / game
50.1

Rating Trend

GS · POR · 47 days
Golden State WarriorsPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · POR 2−8
Nov 21, 2025at GSPOR 127 − 123
Oct 24, 2025at PORPOR 139 − 119
Apr 11, 2025at PORGS 103 − 86
Mar 10, 2025at GSGS 130 − 120
Oct 23, 2024at PORGS 140 − 104
Apr 11, 2024at PORGS 100 − 92
Dec 23, 2023at GSGS 126 − 106
Dec 17, 2023at PORGS 118 − 114
Dec 6, 2023at GSGS 110 − 106
Apr 9, 2023at PORGS 157 − 101

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 12, 2025vs MIN120 − 127L
Dec 7, 2025at CHI123 − 91W
Dec 6, 2025at CLE99 − 94W
Dec 4, 2025at PHI98 − 99L
Dec 2, 2025vs OKC112 − 124L
Nov 29, 2025vs NO104 − 96W
Nov 26, 2025vs HOU100 − 104L
Nov 24, 2025vs UTAH134 − 117W
Nov 21, 2025vs POR123 − 127L
Nov 19, 2025at MIA96 − 110L

POR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Dec 11, 2025at NO120 − 143L
Dec 7, 2025at MEM96 − 119L
Dec 5, 2025at DET116 − 122L
Dec 3, 2025at CLE122 − 110W
Dec 2, 2025at TOR118 − 121L
Nov 30, 2025vs OKC115 − 123L
Nov 26, 2025vs SA102 − 115L
Nov 24, 2025at MIL115 − 103W
Nov 23, 2025at OKC95 − 122L
Nov 21, 2025at GS127 − 123W