bayesRatings

Thunder at Trail Blazers

NBA · Sunday, Nov 30 · 5:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final OKC 123 – POR 115
← NBA / Nov 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC24303138123
POR19363228115
Team box
OKC·POR
44-90
field goals
35-89
10-29
3-pointers
16-49
25-32
free throws
29-37
49
rebounds
49
27
assists
22
12
turnovers
14
56
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Deni AvdijaPOR37311910
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC362645
Toumani CamaraPOR381984
Chet HolmgrenOKC301991
Jerami GrantPOR341832
Ajay MitchellOKC291755

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +11
OKC +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 4 · OKC 11lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 80%, POR 20% · Updated Nov 30, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 11.4
Expected score
OKC 119.7 – 108.3 POR
Expected total
228.0
ThunderThe matchupTrail Blazers
−406Our fair odds+406
119.7Expected points108.3
+1.48Power rating−0.20
122.2Points / game118.4
106.3Allowed / game121.1
48.9FG%44.7
36.63P%32.4
44.8Rebounds / game45.7
19−1Season record8−11
10−0Last 103−7
Alex Caruso · Isaiah Hartenstein
Nikola Topic · Thomas SorberOutBlake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Donovan Clingan · Jrue Holiday
Matisse Thybulle

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · POR chance
Our model fair80.2%19.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−40680%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+40620%————
SpreadOKC by 11.4
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−11.4our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+11.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.0
Over228.0our total————
Under228.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 11.4 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 48 points: <1%
← OKC wins byPOR wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more72%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more56%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more39%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.568%
Total over 228.548%
Total over 238.529%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GSidy Cissokostarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FKris Murraystarted
FDeni Avdijastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·POR
Nov 28, 2025 vs PHX
last game
Nov 26, 2025 vs SA
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 30, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso · right quad; sorenessOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · tear right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORDonovan Clingan · illness; .Out
PORJrue Holiday · right calf; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · left thumb; ligamentOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
OKC·POR
+1.48
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
122.2
points / game
118.4
106.3
points allowed / game
121.1
19−1
season record
8−11
10−0
home record
3−5
9−1
away record
5−6
W11
streak
L1
10−0
last 10
3−7
48.9
FG%
44.7
36.6
3P%
32.4
44.8
rebounds / game
45.7
26.2
assists / game
25.1
12.8
turnovers / game
16.8
51.6
points in paint / game
51.7

Rating Trend

OKC · POR · 33 days
Oklahoma City ThunderPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · POR 1−9
Nov 23, 2025at OKCOKC 122 − 95
Nov 5, 2025at PORPOR 121 − 119
Mar 7, 2025at OKCOKC 107 − 89
Jan 26, 2025at POROKC 118 − 108
Nov 20, 2024at OKCOKC 109 − 99
Nov 1, 2024at POROKC 137 − 114
Mar 6, 2024at POROKC 128 − 120
Jan 23, 2024at OKCOKC 111 − 109
Jan 11, 2024at OKCOKC 139 − 77
Nov 19, 2023at POROKC 134 − 91

OKC · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Nov 28, 2025vs PHX123 − 119W
Nov 26, 2025vs MIN113 − 105W
Nov 23, 2025vs POR122 − 95W
Nov 21, 2025at UTAH144 − 112W
Nov 19, 2025vs SAC113 − 99W
Nov 17, 2025at NO126 − 109W
Nov 15, 2025at CHA109 − 96W
Nov 12, 2025vs LAL121 − 92W
Nov 11, 2025vs GS126 − 102W
Nov 9, 2025at MEM114 − 100W

POR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Nov 26, 2025vs SA102 − 115L
Nov 24, 2025at MIL115 − 103W
Nov 23, 2025at OKC95 − 122L
Nov 21, 2025at GS127 − 123W
Nov 19, 2025vs CHI121 − 122L
Nov 18, 2025vs PHX110 − 127L
Nov 16, 2025at DAL133 − 138L
Nov 14, 2025at HOU116 − 140L
Nov 12, 2025at NO125 − 117W
Nov 10, 2025at ORL112 − 115L