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Trail Blazers at Pelicans

NBA · Thursday, Dec 11 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final POR 120 – NO 143
← NBA / Dec 11, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR30382923120
NO39313538143
Team box
POR·NO
45-102
field goals
58-112
14-48
3-pointers
12-32
16-22
free throws
15-17
41
rebounds
57
27
assists
36
15
turnovers
10
62
points in paint
88
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Trey Murphy IIINO312464
Bryce McGowensNO302372
Jordan PooleNO262213
Shaedon SharpePOR272133
Sidy CissokoPOR322042
Jeremiah FearsNO251974

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +25
POR +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 25 · POR 2lead changes: 16

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 61%, NO 39% · Updated Dec 11, 2025

Expected margin
POR by 4.7
Expected score
POR 118.8 – 114.1 NO
Expected total
232.8
Trail BlazersThe matchupPelicans
−157Our fair odds+157
118.8Expected points114.1
−0.25Power rating−0.94
117.4Points / game113.0
120.6Allowed / game123.7
44.3FG%45.7
33.13P%34.6
45.8Rebounds / game42.0
9−15Season record3−22
3−7Last 101−9
Blake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Donovan Clingan · Jrue Holiday
Matisse ThybulleOutDejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Trey Alexander · Zion Williamson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · NO chance
Our model fair61.1%38.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers−15761%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+15739%————
SpreadPOR by 4.7
PORPortland Trail Blazers−4.7our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.8
Over232.8our total————
Under232.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Portland Trail Blazers by 4.7 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%
← POR wins byNO wins by →
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 5 or more53%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 10 or more38%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,537 past NBA games.

Total range

232.8 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.550%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,537 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GShaedon Sharpestarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FKris Murraystarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·NO
Dec 7, 2025 at MEM
last game
Dec 8, 2025 vs SA
3 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 11, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · right foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORDonovan Clingan · left lower leg; contusionOut
PORJrue Holiday · right calf; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · left thumb; ligament tearOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
PORHansen Yang · face; contusionQuestionable
PORRobert Williams III · illness; .Questionable
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOZion Williamson · right adductor; strainOut
NOJordan Poole · left quad; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
POR·NO
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
−0.94
117.4
points / game
113.0
120.6
points allowed / game
123.7
9−15
season record
3−22
3−6
home record
2−12
6−9
away record
1−10
L2
streak
L7
3−7
last 10
1−9
44.3
FG%
45.7
33.1
3P%
34.6
45.8
rebounds / game
42.0
24.6
assists / game
24.4
17.0
turnovers / game
14.7
49.6
points in paint / game
55.7

Rating Trend

POR · NO · 44 days
Portland Trail BlazersNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 6−4
Nov 12, 2025at NOPOR 125 − 117
Jan 8, 2025at NOPOR 119 − 100
Nov 4, 2024at NOPOR 118 − 100
Oct 27, 2024at PORPOR 125 − 103
Oct 25, 2024at PORNO 105 − 103
Apr 9, 2024at PORNO 110 − 100
Mar 16, 2024at NONO 126 − 107
Feb 10, 2024at PORNO 93 − 84
Mar 27, 2023at PORNO 124 − 90
Mar 12, 2023at NONO 127 − 110

POR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Dec 7, 2025at MEM96 − 119L
Dec 5, 2025at DET116 − 122L
Dec 3, 2025at CLE122 − 110W
Dec 2, 2025at TOR118 − 121L
Nov 30, 2025vs OKC115 − 123L
Nov 26, 2025vs SA102 − 115L
Nov 24, 2025at MIL115 − 103W
Nov 23, 2025at OKC95 − 122L
Nov 21, 2025at GS127 − 123W
Nov 19, 2025vs CHI121 − 122L

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak L7
Dec 8, 2025vs SA132 − 135L
Dec 6, 2025at BKN101 − 119L
Dec 4, 2025vs MIN116 − 125L
Dec 2, 2025vs MIN142 − 149L
Nov 30, 2025at LAL121 − 133L
Nov 29, 2025at GS96 − 104L
Nov 26, 2025vs MEM128 − 133L
Nov 24, 2025vs CHI143 − 130W
Nov 22, 2025vs ATL98 − 115L
Nov 21, 2025at DAL115 − 118L