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Timberwolves at Pelicans

NBA · Thursday, Dec 4 · 7:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final MIN 125 – NO 116
← NBA / Dec 4, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN35272637125
NO30322826116
Team box
MIN·NO
42-92
field goals
43-95
15-38
3-pointers
7-25
26-29
free throws
23-26
49
rebounds
43
30
assists
29
20
turnovers
12
52
points in paint
68
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Julius RandleMIN372893
Trey Murphy IIINO342178
Jeremiah FearsNO342076
Saddiq BeyNO332061
Naz ReidMIN331976
Rudy GobertMIN2415123

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +13
MIN +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 5 · MIN 13lead changes: 18

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 77%, NO 23% · Updated Dec 4, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 10.9
Expected score
MIN 118.8 – 107.9 NO
Expected total
226.7
TimberwolvesThe matchupPelicans
−336Our fair odds+336
118.8Expected points107.9
+0.59Power rating−0.89
120.6Points / game112.6
115.4Allowed / game123.3
48.7FG%45.2
38.63P%35.2
43.3Rebounds / game42.6
13−8Season record3−19
6−4Last 101−9
Rocco ZikarskyOutDejounte Murray · Herbert Jones
Hunter Dickinson · Jordan Poole
Yves Missi

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · NO chance
Our model fair77.0%22.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−33677%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+33623%————
SpreadMIN by 10.9
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−10.9our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+10.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.7
Over226.7our total————
Under226.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 10.9 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 48 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 4%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 4%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%
← MIN wins byNO wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more71%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more54%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.7 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GBryce McGowensstarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·NO
Dec 2, 2025 at NO
last game
Dec 2, 2025 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 4, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHerbert Jones · right calf; strainOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJordan Poole · left quad; strainOut
NOYves Missi · right foot/ankle; sorenessOut
NOZion Williamson · right adductor; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
MIN·NO
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
−0.89
120.6
points / game
112.6
115.4
points allowed / game
123.3
13−8
season record
3−19
7−3
home record
2−10
6−5
away record
1−9
W3
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
1−9
48.7
FG%
45.2
38.6
3P%
35.2
43.3
rebounds / game
42.6
26.5
assists / game
23.4
15.0
turnovers / game
15.0
51.0
points in paint / game
53.9

Rating Trend

MIN · NO · 37 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 3−7
Dec 2, 2025at NOMIN 149 − 142
Mar 21, 2025at MINMIN 134 − 93
Mar 19, 2025at MINNO 119 − 115
Jan 7, 2025at NOMIN 104 − 97
Jan 3, 2024at MINNO 117 − 106
Dec 11, 2023at NONO 121 − 107
Nov 18, 2023at NOMIN 121 − 120
Nov 8, 2023at MINMIN 122 − 101
Apr 9, 2023at MINMIN 113 − 108
Jan 25, 2023at NOMIN 111 − 102

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Dec 2, 2025at NO149 − 142W
Nov 30, 2025vs SA125 − 112W
Nov 29, 2025vs BOS119 − 115W
Nov 26, 2025at OKC105 − 113L
Nov 24, 2025at SAC112 − 117L
Nov 21, 2025at PHX113 − 114L
Nov 19, 2025vs WSH120 − 109W
Nov 17, 2025vs DAL120 − 96W
Nov 15, 2025vs DEN112 − 123L
Nov 14, 2025vs SAC124 − 110W

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak L4
Dec 2, 2025vs MIN142 − 149L
Nov 30, 2025at LAL121 − 133L
Nov 29, 2025at GS96 − 104L
Nov 26, 2025vs MEM128 − 133L
Nov 24, 2025vs CHI143 − 130W
Nov 22, 2025vs ATL98 − 115L
Nov 21, 2025at DAL115 − 118L
Nov 19, 2025vs DEN118 − 125L
Nov 17, 2025vs OKC109 − 126L
Nov 16, 2025vs GS106 − 124L