bayesRatings

Trail Blazers at Cavaliers

NBA · Wednesday, Dec 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final POR 122 – CLE 110
← NBA / Dec 3, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR36323123122
CLE33252725110
Team box
POR·CLE
37-85
field goals
38-94
14-34
3-pointers
13-52
34-39
free throws
21-24
54
rebounds
45
27
assists
23
13
turnovers
7
42
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE343355
Deni AvdijaPOR362787
Evan MobleyCLE3523105
Shaedon SharpePOR322095
Caleb LovePOR272051
Toumani CamaraPOR351764

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +18
POR +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 8 · POR 18lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 25%, CLE 75% · Updated Dec 3, 2025

Expected margin
CLE by 10.1
Expected score
CLE 121.5 – 111.5 POR
Expected total
233.0
Trail BlazersThe matchupCavaliers
+306Our fair odds−306
111.5Expected points121.5
−0.24Power rating+0.66
118.2Points / game119.5
121.1Allowed / game115.8
44.7FG%46.4
32.73P%35.4
45.5Rebounds / game43.9
8−13Season record13−9
2−8Last 105−5
Blake Wesley · Damian Lillard
Jrue Holiday · Matisse Thybulle
Robert Williams IIIOut (5 each)Chris Livingston · Jarrett Allen
Larry Nance Jr. · Max Strus
Sam Merrill

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · CLE chance
Our model fair24.6%75.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+30625%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−30675%————
SpreadCLE by 10.1
PORPortland Trail Blazers+10.1our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−10.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.0
Over233.0our total————
Under233.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 10.1 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 52 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 51 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 50 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 49 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 48 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 49 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 50 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 51 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 52 points: <1%
← POR wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more67%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more52%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more37%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.0 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.548%
Total over 243.529%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GSidy Cissokostarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GDarius Garlandstarted
GJaylon Tysonstarted
FDe'Andre Hunterstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·CLE
Dec 2, 2025 at TOR
last game
Dec 1, 2025 at IND
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 3, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORBlake Wesley · left foot; fractureOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORJrue Holiday · right calf; strainOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · left thumb; ligament tearOut
PORRobert Williams III · left knee; injury managementOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
PORDeni Avdija · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
PORDonovan Clingan · left lower leg; contusionQuestionable
PORKris Murray · left hip; contusionQuestionable
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEChris Livingston · g league - two-wayOut
CLEJarrett Allen · right 3rd finger; strainOut
CLELarry Nance Jr. · right calf; strainOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLESam Merrill · right hand; sprainOut
CLELonzo Ball · illness; illnessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
POR·CLE
−0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.66
118.2
points / game
119.5
121.1
points allowed / game
115.8
8−13
season record
13−9
3−6
home record
8−4
5−7
away record
5−5
L3
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
5−5
44.7
FG%
46.4
32.7
3P%
35.4
45.5
rebounds / game
43.9
24.8
assists / game
27.2
16.6
turnovers / game
14.3
50.9
points in paint / game
46.5

Rating Trend

POR · CLE · 36 days
Portland Trail BlazersCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CLE 7−1
Mar 25, 2025at PORCLE 122 − 111
Mar 2, 2025at CLECLE 133 − 129
Nov 30, 2023at CLEPOR 103 − 95
Nov 15, 2023at PORCLE 109 − 95
Jan 12, 2023at PORCLE 119 − 113
Nov 23, 2022at CLECLE 114 − 96
Jan 7, 2022at PORCLE 114 − 101
Nov 3, 2021at CLECLE 107 − 104

POR · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Dec 2, 2025at TOR118 − 121L
Nov 30, 2025vs OKC115 − 123L
Nov 26, 2025vs SA102 − 115L
Nov 24, 2025at MIL115 − 103W
Nov 23, 2025at OKC95 − 122L
Nov 21, 2025at GS127 − 123W
Nov 19, 2025vs CHI121 − 122L
Nov 18, 2025vs PHX110 − 127L
Nov 16, 2025at DAL133 − 138L
Nov 14, 2025at HOU116 − 140L

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 1, 2025at IND135 − 119W
Nov 30, 2025vs BOS115 − 117L
Nov 28, 2025at ATL123 − 130L
Nov 24, 2025at TOR99 − 110L
Nov 23, 2025vs LAC120 − 105W
Nov 21, 2025vs IND120 − 109W
Nov 19, 2025vs HOU104 − 114L
Nov 17, 2025vs MIL118 − 106W
Nov 15, 2025vs MEM108 − 100W
Nov 13, 2025vs TOR113 − 126L