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Pacers at Cavaliers

NBA · Friday, Nov 21 · 6:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final IND 109 – CLE 120
← NBA / Nov 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND31242628109
CLE33293820120
Team box
IND·CLE
37-88
field goals
43-89
11-37
3-pointers
13-35
24-26
free throws
21-27
43
rebounds
52
25
assists
28
13
turnovers
14
46
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE343295
Andrew NembhardIND333218
Pascal SiakamIND372694
Evan MobleyCLE3522124
Bennedict MathurinIND372172
Darius GarlandCLE272027

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +22
IND +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 22 · IND 2lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 29%, CLE 71% · Updated Nov 21, 2025

Expected margin
CLE by 8.8
Expected score
CLE 122.5 – 113.6 IND
Expected total
236.1
PacersThe matchupCavaliers
+247Our fair odds−247
113.6Expected points122.5
+0.06Power rating+0.72
110.1Points / game119.9
123.1Allowed / game116.1
41.1FG%46.1
30.53P%34.8
46.3Rebounds / game43.6
2−13Season record10−6
2−8Last 107−3
Aaron Nesmith · Johnny Furphy
Kam Jones · Obi Toppin
Quenton JacksonOutChris Livingston · Luke Travers
Max Strus · Sam Merrill

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · CLE chance
Our model fair28.8%71.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+24729%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−24771%————
SpreadCLE by 8.8
INDIndiana Pacers+8.8our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−8.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.1
Over236.1our total————
Under236.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 8.8 expected
Indiana Pacers by 51 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 50 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 49 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 50 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 51 points: <1%
← IND wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more63%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more48%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.1 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.567%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GBen Sheppardstarted
GBennedict Mathurinstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FIsaiah Jacksonstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GDarius Garlandstarted
GJaylon Tysonstarted
FDe'Andre Hunterstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·CLE
Nov 19, 2025 vs CHA
last game
Nov 19, 2025 vs HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 20, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · left knee; mcl sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · left ankle; sprainOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress fractureOut
INDQuenton Jackson · right hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tornOut
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEChris Livingston · g league - two-wayOut
CLELuke Travers · g league - two-wayOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLESam Merrill · right hand; sprainOut
CLEDarius Garland · left great toe; injury managementQuestionable
CLEJarrett Allen · right 3rd finger; strainQuestionable
CLEJaylon Tyson · head; concussionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
IND·CLE
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.72
110.1
points / game
119.9
123.1
points allowed / game
116.1
2−13
season record
10−6
2−5
home record
6−3
0−8
away record
4−3
W1
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
7−3
41.1
FG%
46.1
30.5
3P%
34.8
46.3
rebounds / game
43.6
23.5
assists / game
27.0
14.5
turnovers / game
14.7
46.0
points in paint / game
46.4

Rating Trend

IND · CLE · 25 days
Indiana PacersCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 3−7
May 13, 2025at CLEIND 114 − 105post
May 11, 2025at INDIND 129 − 109post
May 9, 2025at INDCLE 126 − 104post
May 6, 2025at CLEIND 120 − 119post
May 4, 2025at CLEIND 121 − 112post
Apr 13, 2025at CLEIND 126 − 118
Apr 10, 2025at INDIND 114 − 112
Jan 14, 2025at INDCLE 127 − 117
Jan 12, 2025at CLEIND 108 − 93
Apr 12, 2024at CLECLE 129 − 120

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Nov 19, 2025vs CHA127 − 118W
Nov 17, 2025at DET112 − 127L
Nov 15, 2025vs TOR111 − 129L
Nov 13, 2025at PHX98 − 133L
Nov 11, 2025at UTAH128 − 152L
Nov 9, 2025at GS83 − 114L
Nov 8, 2025at DEN100 − 117L
Nov 5, 2025vs BKN103 − 112L
Nov 3, 2025vs MIL115 − 117L
Nov 1, 2025vs GS114 − 109W

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Nov 19, 2025vs HOU104 − 114L
Nov 17, 2025vs MIL118 − 106W
Nov 15, 2025vs MEM108 − 100W
Nov 13, 2025vs TOR113 − 126L
Nov 12, 2025at MIA130 − 116W
Nov 10, 2025at MIA138 − 140L
Nov 8, 2025vs CHI128 − 122W
Nov 7, 2025at WSH148 − 115W
Nov 5, 2025vs PHI132 − 121W
Nov 2, 2025vs ATL117 − 109W