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Cavaliers at Hawks

NBA · Friday, Nov 28 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final CLE 123 – ATL 130
← NBA / Nov 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE23392833123
ATL33273733130
Team box
CLE·ATL
44-95
field goals
48-91
17-39
3-pointers
16-43
18-20
free throws
18-26
48
rebounds
38
29
assists
36
17
turnovers
14
46
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE354233
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL353031
Jalen JohnsonATL39291212
Evan MobleyCLE3420147
Onyeka OkongwuATL341874
De'Andre HunterCLE321641

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +13
CLE +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 13 · CLE 7lead changes: 19

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 59%, ATL 41% · Updated Nov 28, 2025

Expected margin
CLE by 3.3
Expected score
CLE 120.7 – 117.4 ATL
Expected total
238.1
CavaliersThe matchupHawks
−146Our fair odds+146
120.7Expected points117.4
+0.69Power rating+0.05
118.8Points / game117.1
114.8Allowed / game115.3
46.2FG%48.8
34.83P%36.7
43.5Rebounds / game41.4
12−7Season record11−8
6−4Last 107−3
Chris Livingston · Luke Travers
Max Strus · Sam MerrillOutCaleb Houstan · Eli John Ndiaye
N'Faly Dante · Nikola Djurisic
Trae Young

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · ATL chance
Our model fair59.4%40.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−14659%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+14641%————
SpreadCLE by 3.3
CLECleveland Cavaliers−3.3our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+3.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.1
Over238.1our total————
Under238.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 3.3 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%
← CLE wins byATL wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more49%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more34%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.1 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.567%
Total over 238.548%
Total over 248.530%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GDarius Garlandstarted
FDe'Andre Hunterstarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted
Atlanta Hawks
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FZaccharie Risacherstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·ATL
Nov 24, 2025 at TOR
last game
Nov 25, 2025 at WSH
3 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 28, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEChris Livingston · g league - two-wayOut
CLELuke Travers · g league - two-wayOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLESam Merrill · right hand; sprainOut
CLECraig Porter Jr. · left hamstring; strainQuestionable
CLEDean Wade · right knee; hyperextensionQuestionable
CLEJarrett Allen · right 3rd finger; strainProbable
Atlanta Hawks
ATLCaleb Houstan · g league - two-wayOut
ATLEli John Ndiaye · g league - two-wayOut
ATLN'Faly Dante · left knee; mcl sprainOut
ATLNikola Djurisic · right elbow; sprainOut
ATLTrae Young · right knee; mcl sprainOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
CLE·ATL
+0.69
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
118.8
points / game
117.1
114.8
points allowed / game
115.3
12−7
season record
11−8
8−3
home record
3−4
4−4
away record
8−4
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
46.2
FG%
48.8
34.8
3P%
36.7
43.5
rebounds / game
41.4
27.1
assists / game
30.5
14.5
turnovers / game
14.9
46.0
points in paint / game
52.9

Rating Trend

CLE · ATL · 31 days
Cleveland CavaliersAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Nov 2, 2025at CLECLE 117 − 109
Jan 30, 2025at CLECLE 137 − 115
Nov 29, 2024at ATLATL 117 − 101
Nov 27, 2024at CLEATL 135 − 124
Mar 6, 2024at ATLATL 112 − 101
Jan 20, 2024at ATLCLE 116 − 95
Dec 16, 2023at CLECLE 127 − 119
Nov 28, 2023at CLECLE 128 − 105
Mar 28, 2023at ATLATL 120 − 118
Feb 24, 2023at ATLATL 136 − 119

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 24, 2025at TOR99 − 110L
Nov 23, 2025vs LAC120 − 105W
Nov 21, 2025vs IND120 − 109W
Nov 19, 2025vs HOU104 − 114L
Nov 17, 2025vs MIL118 − 106W
Nov 15, 2025vs MEM108 − 100W
Nov 13, 2025vs TOR113 − 126L
Nov 12, 2025at MIA130 − 116W
Nov 10, 2025at MIA138 − 140L
Nov 8, 2025vs CHI128 − 122W

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Nov 25, 2025at WSH113 − 132L
Nov 23, 2025vs CHA113 − 110W
Nov 22, 2025at NO115 − 98W
Nov 20, 2025at SA126 − 135L
Nov 18, 2025vs DET112 − 120L
Nov 16, 2025at PHX124 − 122W
Nov 13, 2025at UTAH132 − 122W
Nov 12, 2025at SAC133 − 100W
Nov 10, 2025at LAC105 − 102W
Nov 8, 2025vs LAL122 − 102W