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Thunder at Warriors

NBA · Tuesday, Dec 2 · 10:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final OKC 124 – GS 112
← NBA / Dec 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC32312833124
GS26184424112
Team box
OKC·GS
46-79
field goals
43-95
15-32
3-pointers
18-42
17-23
free throws
8-10
41
rebounds
43
24
assists
30
15
turnovers
16
58
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC363834
Jalen WilliamsOKC332236
Chet HolmgrenOKC302183
Pat SpencerGS211736
Brandin PodziemskiGS281744
Seth CurryGS181422

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +22
OKC +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 4 · OKC 22lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 71%, GS 29% · Updated Dec 2, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 6.6
Expected score
OKC 114.8 – 108.2 GS
Expected total
223.0
ThunderThe matchupWarriors
−248Our fair odds+248
114.8Expected points108.2
+1.46Power rating+0.29
122.2Points / game114.5
106.7Allowed / game113.6
48.9FG%45.1
36.53P%36.0
45.0Rebounds / game43.0
20−1Season record11−10
10−0Last 105−5
Alex Caruso · Brooks Barnhizer
Isaiah Hartenstein · Luguentz Dort
Nikola TopicOutAl Horford · Alex Toohey
De'Anthony Melton · Stephen Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · GS chance
Our model fair71.2%28.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−24871%————
GSGolden State Warriors+24829%————
SpreadOKC by 6.6
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−6.6our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors+6.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.0
Over223.0our total————
Under223.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 6.6 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%
← OKC wins byGS wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more59%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more42%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.0 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.568%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.529%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Golden State Warriors
GMoses Moodystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
GWill Richardstarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·GS
Nov 30, 2025 at POR
last game
Nov 29, 2025 vs NO
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 2, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso · right quad; sorenessOut
OKCBrooks Barnhizer · g league - two-wayOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCLuguentz Dort · right adductor; strainOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSAlex Toohey · left knee; injury recoveryOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
GSStephen Curry · left quadriceps; contusionOut
GSJimmy Butler III · left gluteal; contusionQuestionable
GSTrayce Jackson-Davis · right knee; patellar tendonitisQuestionable
GSDraymond Green · right midfoot; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
OKC·GS
+1.46
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
122.2
points / game
114.5
106.7
points allowed / game
113.6
20−1
season record
11−10
10−0
home record
7−2
10−1
away record
4−8
W12
streak
W1
10−0
last 10
5−5
48.9
FG%
45.1
36.5
3P%
36.0
45.0
rebounds / game
43.0
26.2
assists / game
27.4
12.7
turnovers / game
16.2
51.8
points in paint / game
41.6

Rating Trend

OKC · GS · 35 days
Oklahoma City ThunderGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 4−6
Nov 11, 2025at OKCOKC 126 − 102
Jan 29, 2025at GSGS 116 − 109
Nov 27, 2024at GSOKC 105 − 101
Nov 10, 2024at OKCGS 127 − 116
Dec 8, 2023at OKCOKC 138 − 136
Nov 18, 2023at GSOKC 130 − 123
Nov 16, 2023at GSOKC 128 − 109
Nov 3, 2023at OKCGS 141 − 139
Apr 4, 2023at GSGS 136 − 125
Mar 7, 2023at OKCOKC 137 − 128

OKC · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Nov 30, 2025at POR123 − 115W
Nov 28, 2025vs PHX123 − 119W
Nov 26, 2025vs MIN113 − 105W
Nov 23, 2025vs POR122 − 95W
Nov 21, 2025at UTAH144 − 112W
Nov 19, 2025vs SAC113 − 99W
Nov 17, 2025at NO126 − 109W
Nov 15, 2025at CHA109 − 96W
Nov 12, 2025vs LAL121 − 92W
Nov 11, 2025vs GS126 − 102W

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 29, 2025vs NO104 − 96W
Nov 26, 2025vs HOU100 − 104L
Nov 24, 2025vs UTAH134 − 117W
Nov 21, 2025vs POR123 − 127L
Nov 19, 2025at MIA96 − 110L
Nov 18, 2025at ORL113 − 121L
Nov 16, 2025at NO124 − 106W
Nov 14, 2025at SA109 − 108W
Nov 12, 2025at SA125 − 120W
Nov 11, 2025at OKC102 − 126L