bayesRatings

Timberwolves at Warriors

NBA · Friday, Dec 12 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final MIN 127 – GS 120
← NBA / Dec 12, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN28332739127
GS27362829120
Team box
MIN·GS
48-89
field goals
44-96
11-31
3-pointers
15-46
20-28
free throws
17-22
44
rebounds
42
30
assists
27
11
turnovers
13
66
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Stephen CurryGS323955
Julius RandleMIN342796
Rudy GobertMIN3524141
Donte DiVincenzoMIN352164
Naz ReidMIN301847
Jaden McDanielsMIN351755

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +12
MIN +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 6 · MIN 12lead changes: 27

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 51%, GS 49% · Updated Dec 12, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 0.4
Expected score
GS 110.7 – 110.2 MIN
Expected total
220.9
TimberwolvesThe matchupWarriors
−103Our fair odds+103
110.2Expected points110.7
+0.58Power rating+0.33
119.6Points / game113.5
114.8Allowed / game111.7
48.6FG%44.9
38.33P%36.5
43.3Rebounds / game43.5
15−9Season record13−12
6−4Last 104−6
Anthony Edwards · Enrique Freeman
Joan Beringer · Mike Conley
Rocco ZikarskyOutAl Horford · Draymond Green

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · GS chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−10351%————
GSGolden State Warriors+10349%————
SpreadGS by 0.4
MINMinnesota Timberwolves+0.4our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.9
Over220.9our total————
Under220.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 0.4 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%
← MIN wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more42%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more28%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

220.9 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.570%
Total over 220.550%
Total over 230.531%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GBones Hylandstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GBuddy Hieldstarted
GPat Spencerstarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·GS
Dec 8, 2025 vs PHX
last game
Dec 7, 2025 at CHI
3 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 12, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · right foot; sorenessOut
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJoan Beringer · g league - on assignmentOut
MINMike Conley · right achilles; tendinopathyOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSDraymond Green · personal reasonsOut
GSTrayce Jackson-Davis · right knee; patellar tendonitisProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 24+ games
MIN·GS
+0.58
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
119.6
points / game
113.5
114.8
points allowed / game
111.7
15−9
season record
13−12
8−4
home record
7−3
7−5
away record
6−9
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
4−6
48.6
FG%
44.9
38.3
3P%
36.5
43.3
rebounds / game
43.5
26.5
assists / game
27.4
15.1
turnovers / game
16.0
50.2
points in paint / game
41.5

Rating Trend

MIN · GS · 45 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 4−6
May 14, 2025at MINMIN 121 − 110post
May 12, 2025at GSMIN 117 − 110post
May 10, 2025at GSMIN 102 − 97post
May 8, 2025at MINMIN 117 − 93post
May 6, 2025at MINGS 99 − 88post
Jan 15, 2025at MINGS 116 − 115
Dec 21, 2024at MINGS 113 − 103
Dec 8, 2024at GSGS 114 − 106
Dec 6, 2024at GSMIN 107 − 90
Mar 24, 2024at MINMIN 114 − 110

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 8, 2025vs PHX105 − 108L
Dec 6, 2025vs LAC109 − 106W
Dec 4, 2025at NO125 − 116W
Dec 2, 2025at NO149 − 142W
Nov 30, 2025vs SA125 − 112W
Nov 29, 2025vs BOS119 − 115W
Nov 26, 2025at OKC105 − 113L
Nov 24, 2025at SAC112 − 117L
Nov 21, 2025at PHX113 − 114L
Nov 19, 2025vs WSH120 − 109W

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Dec 7, 2025at CHI123 − 91W
Dec 6, 2025at CLE99 − 94W
Dec 4, 2025at PHI98 − 99L
Dec 2, 2025vs OKC112 − 124L
Nov 29, 2025vs NO104 − 96W
Nov 26, 2025vs HOU100 − 104L
Nov 24, 2025vs UTAH134 − 117W
Nov 21, 2025vs POR123 − 127L
Nov 19, 2025at MIA96 − 110L
Nov 18, 2025at ORL113 − 121L