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Warriors at Cavaliers

NBA · Saturday, Dec 6 · 6:30 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final GS 99 – CLE 94
← NBA / Dec 6, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS1233272799
CLE1818263294
Team box
GS·CLE
33-86
field goals
37-107
13-35
3-pointers
10-42
20-23
free throws
10-12
46
rebounds
61
25
assists
15
14
turnovers
12
38
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE372943
Pat SpencerGS291947
Evan MobleyCLE3518101
Darius GarlandCLE321754
Gui SantosGS271433
Buddy HieldGS261373

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +14
GS +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 9 · GS 14lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 35%, CLE 65% · Updated Dec 6, 2025

Expected margin
CLE by 5.8
Expected score
CLE 117.1 – 111.3 GS
Expected total
228.4
WarriorsThe matchupCavaliers
+182Our fair odds−182
111.3Expected points117.1
+0.29Power rating+0.66
113.7Points / game119.6
113.4Allowed / game116.1
45.0FG%46.6
36.03P%34.8
43.0Rebounds / game44.1
11−12Season record14−10
4−6Last 105−5
Al Horford · Alex Toohey
De'Anthony Melton · Draymond Green
Jimmy Butler IIIOut (5 each)Jarrett Allen · Larry Nance Jr.
Lonzo Ball · Max Strus
Sam Merrill

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · CLE chance
Our model fair35.4%64.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+18235%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−18265%————
SpreadCLE by 5.8
GSGolden State Warriors+5.8our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−5.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.4
Over228.4our total————
Under228.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 5.8 expected
Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 48 points: <1%
← GS wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more56%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more40%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.4 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GBuddy Hieldstarted
GPat Spencerstarted
GWill Richardstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted
CQuinten Poststarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GDarius Garlandstarted
GJaylon Tysonstarted
FDe'Andre Hunterstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·CLE
Dec 4, 2025 at PHI
last game
Dec 5, 2025 vs SA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 6, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSAlex Toohey · left knee; injury managementOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left knee; injury managementOut
GSDraymond Green · right midfoot; sprainOut
GSJimmy Butler III · left knee; injury managementOut
GSSeth Curry · right toe; sorenessOut
GSStephen Curry · left quadriceps; contusionOut
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEJarrett Allen · right 3rd finger; strainOut
CLELarry Nance Jr. · right calf; strainOut
CLELonzo Ball · rest - left knee injury managementOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLESam Merrill · right hand; sprainOut
CLETyrese Proctor · personal reasonsOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
GS·CLE
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.66
113.7
points / game
119.6
113.4
points allowed / game
116.1
11−12
season record
14−10
7−3
home record
9−5
4−9
away record
5−5
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
45.0
FG%
46.6
36.0
3P%
34.8
43.0
rebounds / game
44.1
27.5
assists / game
27.2
16.1
turnovers / game
14.0
41.7
points in paint / game
47.9

Rating Trend

GS · CLE · 39 days
Golden State WarriorsCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CLE 4−4
Dec 30, 2024at GSCLE 113 − 95
Nov 8, 2024at CLECLE 136 − 117
Nov 11, 2023at GSCLE 118 − 110
Nov 5, 2023at CLECLE 115 − 104
Jan 20, 2023at CLEGS 120 − 114
Nov 11, 2022at GSGS 106 − 101
Jan 9, 2022at GSGS 96 − 82
Nov 18, 2021at CLEGS 104 − 89

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 4, 2025at PHI98 − 99L
Dec 2, 2025vs OKC112 − 124L
Nov 29, 2025vs NO104 − 96W
Nov 26, 2025vs HOU100 − 104L
Nov 24, 2025vs UTAH134 − 117W
Nov 21, 2025vs POR123 − 127L
Nov 19, 2025at MIA96 − 110L
Nov 18, 2025at ORL113 − 121L
Nov 16, 2025at NO124 − 106W
Nov 14, 2025at SA109 − 108W

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 5, 2025vs SA130 − 117W
Dec 3, 2025vs POR110 − 122L
Dec 1, 2025at IND135 − 119W
Nov 30, 2025vs BOS115 − 117L
Nov 28, 2025at ATL123 − 130L
Nov 24, 2025at TOR99 − 110L
Nov 23, 2025vs LAC120 − 105W
Nov 21, 2025vs IND120 − 109W
Nov 19, 2025vs HOU104 − 114L
Nov 17, 2025vs MIL118 − 106W