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Spurs at Cavaliers

NBA · Friday, Dec 5 · 6:30 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final SA 117 – CLE 130
← NBA / Dec 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA35371926117
CLE30344422130
Team box
SA·CLE
42-93
field goals
50-86
15-43
3-pointers
8-26
18-26
free throws
22-29
38
rebounds
48
28
assists
32
14
turnovers
15
44
points in paint
80
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE322828
Devin VassellSA302833
De'Aaron FoxSA332559
Jaylon TysonCLE332462
Evan MobleyCLE3217105
Keldon JohnsonSA251470

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +20
SA +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 20 · SA 10lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 28%, CLE 72% · Updated Dec 5, 2025

Expected margin
CLE by 8.2
Expected score
CLE 121.5 – 113.3 SA
Expected total
234.8
SpursThe matchupCavaliers
+251Our fair odds−251
113.3Expected points121.5
−0.04Power rating+0.66
119.0Points / game119.1
113.8Allowed / game116.0
48.9FG%46.1
36.23P%34.9
45.0Rebounds / game44.0
15−6Season record13−10
7−3Last 105−5
Harrison Ingram · Jordan McLaughlin
Luke Kornet · Riley Minix
Stephon CastleOut (5 each)Darius Garland · Jarrett Allen
Larry Nance Jr. · Max Strus
Sam Merrill

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · CLE chance
Our model fair28.5%71.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+25128%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−25172%————
SpreadCLE by 8.2
SASan Antonio Spurs+8.2our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−8.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.8
Over234.8our total————
Under234.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 8.2 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 50 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 49 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 50 points: <1%
← SA wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more62%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more46%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.8 expected
185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.569%
Total over 234.550%
Total over 244.531%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
CBismack Biyombostarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GJaylon Tysonstarted
FDe'Andre Hunterstarted
FNae'Qwan Tomlinstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·CLE
Dec 3, 2025 at ORL
last game
Dec 3, 2025 vs POR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 5, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SAJordan McLaughlin · left hamstring; strainOut
SALuke Kornet · left ankle; sorenessOut
SARiley Minix · g league - two-wayOut
SAStephon Castle · left hip flexor; strainOut
SAVictor Wembanyama · left calf; strainOut
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEDarius Garland · left great toe; injury managementOut
CLEJarrett Allen · right 3rd finger; strainOut
CLELarry Nance Jr. · right calf; strainOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLESam Merrill · right hand; sprainOut
CLETyrese Proctor · personal reasonsOut
CLEEvan Mobley · illness; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
SA·CLE
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.66
119.0
points / game
119.1
113.8
points allowed / game
116.0
15−6
season record
13−10
9−2
home record
8−5
6−4
away record
5−5
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
48.9
FG%
46.1
36.2
3P%
34.9
45.0
rebounds / game
44.0
25.7
assists / game
27.0
14.8
turnovers / game
14.0
50.2
points in paint / game
46.5

Rating Trend

SA · CLE · 38 days
San Antonio SpursCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CLE 7−1
Apr 4, 2025at SACLE 114 − 113
Mar 27, 2025at CLECLE 124 − 116
Feb 3, 2024at SACLE 117 − 101
Jan 7, 2024at CLECLE 117 − 115
Feb 13, 2023at CLECLE 117 − 109
Dec 12, 2022at SASA 112 − 111
Feb 9, 2022at CLECLE 105 − 92
Jan 14, 2022at SACLE 114 − 109

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Dec 3, 2025at ORL114 − 112W
Dec 2, 2025vs MEM126 − 119W
Nov 30, 2025at MIN112 − 125L
Nov 28, 2025at DEN139 − 136W
Nov 26, 2025at POR115 − 102W
Nov 23, 2025at PHX102 − 111L
Nov 20, 2025vs ATL135 − 126W
Nov 18, 2025vs MEM111 − 101W
Nov 16, 2025vs SAC123 − 110W
Nov 14, 2025vs GS108 − 109L

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 3, 2025vs POR110 − 122L
Dec 1, 2025at IND135 − 119W
Nov 30, 2025vs BOS115 − 117L
Nov 28, 2025at ATL123 − 130L
Nov 24, 2025at TOR99 − 110L
Nov 23, 2025vs LAC120 − 105W
Nov 21, 2025vs IND120 − 109W
Nov 19, 2025vs HOU104 − 114L
Nov 17, 2025vs MIL118 − 106W
Nov 15, 2025vs MEM108 − 100W