bayesRatings

Warriors at Suns

NBA · Thursday, Dec 18 · 8:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final GS 98 – PHX 99
← NBA / Dec 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS2924182798
PHX2620242999
Team box
GS·PHX
35-89
field goals
36-88
12-42
3-pointers
10-35
16-18
free throws
17-22
54
rebounds
49
27
assists
19
20
turnovers
15
38
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jimmy Butler IIIGS343133
Devin BookerPHX332522
Dillon BrooksPHX332472
Brandin PodziemskiGS281822
Collin GillespiePHX341665
Stephen CurryGS331597

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +14
GS +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 8 · GS 14lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 51%, PHX 49% · Updated Dec 18, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 0.8
Expected score
GS 113.3 – 112.5 PHX
Expected total
225.8
WarriorsThe matchupSuns
−105Our fair odds+105
113.3Expected points112.5
+0.27Power rating−0.00
114.4Points / game114.8
113.2Allowed / game114.5
45.2FG%46.6
36.93P%36.5
43.1Rebounds / game42.1
13−14Season record14−12
4−6Last 104−6
Al Horford · Pat SpencerOut (2 each)Jalen Green · Koby Brea

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · PHX chance
Our model fair51.3%48.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−10551%————
PHXPhoenix Suns+10549%————
SpreadGS by 0.8
GSGolden State Warriors−0.8our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.8
Over225.8our total————
Under225.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 0.8 expected
Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%
← GS wins byPHX wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more42%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more28%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.8 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.570%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·PHX
Dec 14, 2025 at POR
last game
Dec 14, 2025 vs LAL
3 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 18, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSPat Spencer · personal reasonsOut
GSSeth Curry · soreness left glute; injury managementQuestionable
Phoenix Suns
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXKoby Brea · g league - two-wayOut
PHXGrayson Allen · right knee; sorenessQuestionable
PHXIsaiah Livers · right hip; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
GS·PHX
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
114.4
points / game
114.8
113.2
points allowed / game
114.5
13−14
season record
14−12
7−4
home record
8−5
6−10
away record
6−7
L2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
4−6
45.2
FG%
46.6
36.9
3P%
36.5
43.1
rebounds / game
42.1
27.6
assists / game
25.5
16.0
turnovers / game
16.0
41.5
points in paint / game
45.8

Rating Trend

GS · PHX · 51 days
Golden State WarriorsPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 5−5
Nov 4, 2025at GSGS 118 − 107
Apr 8, 2025at PHXGS 133 − 95
Jan 31, 2025at GSPHX 130 − 105
Dec 28, 2024at GSGS 109 − 105
Nov 30, 2024at PHXPHX 113 − 105
Feb 10, 2024at GSGS 113 − 112
Dec 12, 2023at PHXPHX 119 − 116
Nov 22, 2023at PHXPHX 123 − 115
Oct 24, 2023at GSPHX 108 − 104
Mar 13, 2023at GSGS 123 − 112

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 14, 2025at POR131 − 136L
Dec 12, 2025vs MIN120 − 127L
Dec 7, 2025at CHI123 − 91W
Dec 6, 2025at CLE99 − 94W
Dec 4, 2025at PHI98 − 99L
Dec 2, 2025vs OKC112 − 124L
Nov 29, 2025vs NO104 − 96W
Nov 26, 2025vs HOU100 − 104L
Nov 24, 2025vs UTAH134 − 117W
Nov 21, 2025vs POR123 − 127L

PHX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 14, 2025vs LAL114 − 116L
Dec 10, 2025at OKC89 − 138L
Dec 8, 2025at MIN108 − 105W
Dec 5, 2025at HOU98 − 117L
Dec 1, 2025at LAL125 − 108W
Nov 29, 2025vs DEN112 − 130L
Nov 28, 2025at OKC119 − 123L
Nov 26, 2025at SAC112 − 100W
Nov 24, 2025vs HOU92 − 114L
Nov 23, 2025vs SA111 − 102W