bayesRatings

Suns at Lakers

NBA · Monday, Dec 1 · 9:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final PHX 125 – LAL 108
← NBA / Dec 1, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX31353029125
LAL31212531108
Team box
PHX·LAL
52-92
field goals
41-80
17-39
3-pointers
13-33
4-8
free throws
13-15
33
rebounds
39
35
assists
18
11
turnovers
22
56
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL3238115
Dillon BrooksPHX333322
Collin GillespiePHX342845
Austin ReavesLAL331643
Mark WilliamsPHX251361
Jordan GoodwinPHX241315

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +25
PHX +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 6 · PHX 25lead changes: 15

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 36%, LAL 64% · Updated Dec 1, 2025

Expected margin
LAL by 4.5
Expected score
LAL 116.7 – 112.2 PHX
Expected total
228.8
SunsThe matchupLakers
+175Our fair odds−175
112.2Expected points116.7
+0.01Power rating+0.33
116.7Points / game119.6
114.0Allowed / game115.4
46.8FG%51.3
37.63P%35.0
43.4Rebounds / game41.1
12−9Season record15−4
6−4Last 108−2
Isaiah Livers · Jalen GreenOutMarcus Smart

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · LAL chance
Our model fair36.4%63.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+17536%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−17564%————
SpreadLAL by 4.5
PHXPhoenix Suns+4.5our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−4.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.8
Over228.8our total————
Under228.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 4.5 expected
Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%
← PHX wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more52%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more37%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.8 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.570%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·LAL
Nov 29, 2025 vs DEN
last game
Nov 30, 2025 vs NO
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 1, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXIsaiah Livers · right hip; strainOut
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXRyan Dunn · right wrist; sprainProbable
Los Angeles Lakers
LALMarcus Smart · lower back; injury managementOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
PHX·LAL
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
116.7
points / game
119.6
114.0
points allowed / game
115.4
12−9
season record
15−4
8−4
home record
7−2
4−5
away record
8−2
L2
streak
W7
6−4
last 10
8−2
46.8
FG%
51.3
37.6
3P%
35.0
43.4
rebounds / game
41.1
25.5
assists / game
26.1
16.3
turnovers / game
15.9
44.9
points in paint / game
52.9

Rating Trend

PHX · LAL · 34 days
Phoenix SunsLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 6−4
Mar 16, 2025at LALLAL 107 − 96
Nov 26, 2024at PHXPHX 127 − 100
Oct 28, 2024at PHXPHX 109 − 105
Oct 25, 2024at LALLAL 123 − 116
Feb 25, 2024at PHXPHX 123 − 113
Jan 11, 2024at LALPHX 127 − 109
Dec 5, 2023at LALLAL 106 − 103
Nov 10, 2023at PHXLAL 122 − 119
Oct 26, 2023at LALLAL 100 − 95
Apr 7, 2023at LALLAL 121 − 107

PHX · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Nov 29, 2025vs DEN112 − 130L
Nov 28, 2025at OKC119 − 123L
Nov 26, 2025at SAC112 − 100W
Nov 24, 2025vs HOU92 − 114L
Nov 23, 2025vs SA111 − 102W
Nov 21, 2025vs MIN114 − 113W
Nov 18, 2025at POR127 − 110W
Nov 16, 2025vs ATL122 − 124L
Nov 13, 2025vs IND133 − 98W
Nov 12, 2025at DAL123 − 114W

LAL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Nov 30, 2025vs NO133 − 121W
Nov 28, 2025vs DAL129 − 119W
Nov 25, 2025vs LAC135 − 118W
Nov 23, 2025at UTAH108 − 106W
Nov 18, 2025vs UTAH140 − 126W
Nov 15, 2025at MIL119 − 95W
Nov 14, 2025at NO118 − 104W
Nov 12, 2025at OKC92 − 121L
Nov 10, 2025at CHA121 − 111W
Nov 8, 2025at ATL102 − 122L